K4CF

On 2/17/2023 at 6:43 PM, BooneWX said:

I know this is an out there sort of comment but is anyone mildly concerned the snowfall in the mountains tonight is toxic?

You were concerned for good reason sir! 

 https://www.infowars.com/posts/toxic-clouds-spew-down-acid-rain-following-ohio-train-derailment-reports-claim/

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The GEFS (used in CPC daily updated charts for indices) based NAO forecasts have gone markedly in the -NAO direction over the last 4 day period:
 

- The 2/13 forecast had only 2 members (~6%) with a sub -0.25 NAO (what I consider -NAO) on 2/27. The mean for 2/27 on the 2/13 run was up at +0.5 vs 0 on the 2/16 run and -0.3 on the 2/17 run.

- The # of members with a -NAO on 2/27 rose sharply on the 2/14 run from 2 to 8 members (~25%).

- The 2/15 and 2/16 forecasts each had ~10 members (~33%) with a -NAO on 2/27.

- The 2/17 forecast has ~15 members (~50%) with a -NAO on 2/27.

- So, the progression from the 2/13 run to the 2/17 run has been 2 to 8 to 10 to 10 to 15 members with a -NAO on 2/27.

- The 2/16 forecast had ~10 members (~33%) with a -NAO on 3/1 vs ~23 (~75%) on the new one

- The 2/16 forecast had only 3 members (~10%) with a sub -1 NAO (what I consider a strong -NAO) on 3/1. The 2/17 forecast has 10 (~33%).

- The 2/16 forecast had 12 members (~40%) with a +0.25+ NAO (what I consider +NAO) on 3/1 vs only 3 (~10%) on the 2/17.

 With this trend toward -NAO for 2/27-3/1+ remaining strong even on today's run as per the above, I wonder if the trend will continue to an even stronger -NAO over the next few days of runs as the models get an even better grasp of the downwelling of the major SSW that won't peak til tomorrow (as per the 10 mb 60N winds). Keep in mind that the main period in question (2/26+) is still 9+ days out, which for this uncommon situation (a major SSW with a dip to ~-15 m/s 10 mb winds at 60N) is probably not the easiest for the models to handle well.

 Also, are the models correct in keeping a +AO with this increasingly strong progged -NAO? Or is the modeled AO going to start dropping if the progged -NAO keeps strengthening? I especially wonder about this since a strong -AO is often the hallmark of a successfully downwelled SSW.

  What do others think? It remains to be seen whether or not the SE will cool down significantly by early March. Unlike the NE even if the AO ends up also falling, the SE is likely going to also need the PNA to rise (better Pacific than currently). So far, modeling is hardly budging there.

Thanks for your research and updates for this forum!

This was posted earlier in the TN valley forum...

Remote Day learning for Mitchell County Schools...dusting up to 1" from Bakersville northward

WSW issued for Mountain City down to Gatlinburg!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

4:29 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2023...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of up to 4 inches possible above 2500 feet. 4 to 8 inches possible at the highest peaks. * WHERE...Portions of the East Tennessee mountains * WHEN...From late tonight through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds could also gust up to 30 mph in the higher elevations during this time.

Hello all...While we're waiting for the next storm to track, I'm needing some advice if you would?  Middle school STEM teacher here and in the planning stages for a 10-day summer camp in June.  Would like to do a weather/climate/environmental science theme with them (about 30 sixth thru eight graders).  I have a fairly substantial budget and am looking at purchasing 15 of the Kestrel 3500 pocket weather meters and a couple of automated weather stations...what's the difference between an ultrasonic vs wifi?  Any other suggestions for a  pocket/portable meter?  Are there any designed for used with an ipad (since each kid will have an ipad to use)?  Would like to take them to Roan, Mt. Mitchell, Lake James, Blue Ridge Parkway, and other places on fieldtrips to let them take readings and record them in a journal or on ipad as a 2 or 3 student team.  I am also going to let them go thru a storm-spotter class.  I am a newbie to pocket weather meters, outdoor stations, and such...I would love to hear suggestions from this wonderful, knowledgable, and, often comical group.  Are any of you meteorologists either professional, college-level, industry-level, or it's your passion that would be willing to guest lecture or do labs/simulations with these kids?  Anyone from the NWS/NOAA who I could schedule a field trip with?  Any of you in the sports medicine field that use weather monitors for athletic safety.  Any DOT people out there who would talk to the kids about your typical day on the job as far as severe weather and preparation?  Any one involved with agricultural weather monitoring who we could visit?  We are located in Mitchell county and would be willing to come to another venue (within 2 hours drive in an activity bus).  Any suggestions as to other weather-related activity we could do?  Moderators, if I could use this banter thread for initial suggestions would be greatly appreciated.  My email is [email protected] if that's a better route.  Thank you for reading and I welcome your help.  

Mitchell County schools closed tomorrow

2 hours ago, Ja643y said:

I’ve got a place I can go to right on the McDowell/Mitchell line just under 3,300 feet. The maps show a pretty steep drop off with almost nothing. Is there shadowing that happens or does all the moisture get rung out pretty quick NE to SW as it crosses the boarder. I’ve only been there for one storm (last year - 10”+) but never for a Flow event. Any thoughts? 
 

Unfortunately, that is the case with these NWFS events here in Mitchell county.  Areas north and west of Bakersville (Roan, Unaka, Buladean, and Poplar) tend to get the most during these events.  However, Little Switzerland gets the best during the synoptic setups and icy CAD events along the BRP.  Sometimes the NWFS events can break containment of the higher elevation TN border and give Spruce Pine some nice totals.  Numerous times in my 55 years, I've seen the Buladean valley socked in with 6-8" of flow snow while Spruce Pine was sunny and dry all day!  Good luck with this one...maybe we get to see our first measurable snow of the season!

Wow what a squall!  Now 2" of snow on the ground in Red Hill....roads solid white...1st time in weeks!

Mitchell County Schools closed tomorrow, Friday, Feb. 28

And lastly, completing the Tri-County sweep!  Avery County Schools just closed for tomorrow

Yancey County Schools just closed for tomorrow

Snow reported falling in Mitchell county from the TN line southward to Ledger...Temps at or below freezing from Red Hill northward to Buladean, Poplar, and Roan Valley 

Mitchell County Schools closed tomorrow, Thursday, Feb. 27...Schedule 3 workday for teachers/staff

Good morning all....Hey I think that NWS policy only applies to 5000'+...

"Elevations above 5000 feet could even see warning level snow, but due to local
agreement, we don`t issue warnings for just those elevations"