pasnownut

Verbatim you see how we can still manage to lose even though things are "better". Reminder that while it probably verifies (even though i dont believe it)....its an Op run at 10 days out.

Is this YOUR call............ I'm just playing around w/ yall. We all just need to keep it real as we see better days ahead, but one needs to proceed w/ caution, cause were always 1 indice away from crappin the bed....

You got called out for being arrogant not for being correct. Nice call for this one...if it verifies. Noone likes a no it all, and in this game....coming off like one is really a dangerous way to play. Ask DT.

Yup. Uptick in activity and players realigning is all most rational weenies are looking at right now. Smh

So basically you want us to just stop using a long range threat to discuss long range....??. While most know better than to trust much beyond 240, we are smart enough to see the signs of better things coming and are glad to share/discuss long range stuff in a long range thread. you’re always welcome in banter

Back to the 30” or meh mindset are we??

Thats a great setup if it happens. Just nice to see a transition away from this upcoming hot mess and a medley of workable looks on Ens guidance moving beyond D7

Yeah after the last few days, that seems to be the day we start back into a more wintery regime. Still noteabe differences between GFS Ens so takeaway is somethings likely changing, EPS seems a bit quicker, and looks workable as well once beyond next week. Hope so.

I'm reading your posts and can see some of your logic/reasoning, but I'll say that you are 1 stall away in phase 6 from potentially eating a crap ton of crow....especially since the AO/NAO are not showing overwhelming signals to help your case. Mind you, I think that as they trend better coupled w/ prime climo and ridging showing up in Scandanavia it should help, and make your suggestions may have merit. While I/we dont know much about you....speaking in absolutes as you tend to do doesn't often bode well.....even for the best of the best. Just a suggestion.

Agreed. Lobes of cold running to the north with well timed vorts to the south can lead to multiple events like today. Pac flood if the ridge rolls over would suck arse. tts not a sustained cold pattern but one that give chances for snow. In a year like this, thats better than nothing.

Positive takeaway is that the LR consensus is now bouncing around, which we know implies potential change. Scandy ridging seems to be showing up more consistently, which implies a change upstairs. PSU's concern sure is a valid one, but as he and some of us have stated for a few weeks, there are multiple indices to consider in the LR guidance, so worrying about 1 (albeit a potentially big one) still doesnt mean we can't overcome so long as other players show up.

Agreed. Scandinavian ridging looks less than last few runs and that really degraded the press of cold on "our side", as we know we need something to dislodge things upstairs. trough in SW is killin us and IF we cant get help from AO/NAO we are really reaching for how it can work. Just no way to sugarcoat it for now.

I'll eat crow just for sh!ts n giggles if that helps.

Just saw that. Yeah nice to see the Southern press of cold on our side as a result. While I'm not a fan of looking WAY out beyond d10, it appears to anchor in and hold through the end of the run.

Agreed. I think we looking at different ways to a better pattern (and for me just a serviceable one is all I'm asking for) as I'm a realist and dont waste any time wishing for things to happen. I just make a life making lemonade outta lemons if you will. As long as I see that blue blob in the SW, we literally and figuratively will be sweatin it out here in the east w/o help from AO/NAO domains. Just gotta hope that one or both come to save us.

with all due respect, give it 6 hrs.....

I'm concerned that if you get your retrograde and there is no blocking.....its flip flop Feb. around here. There will be a ridge bridge alright, but it will be in the east starting in Venezuela right up to Nova Scotia. I mentioned the tellies, because when we see AO trending neut/neg, that is something that can and does happen. NAO has been rather elusive at best. It would be interesting to how many modeled and verified AO's vs NAO's have come to pass in the last decade or 2. Looking to see how and if ENS guidance starts to reflect AO in the next couple days. GEFS today says keep waiting.

I'm looking at current ENS guidance as well as tellies. I've been a fan of the AO and i've stated that in the last couple years, and in my mind, if we can shove that ridge east and couple it with -AO, thats a nice combo to play with. Tellies show that trending more favorable, so thats where my chips are headed. Point is there are more than a couple ways to do this. Im not judging whos right or whats best, I'm talking about what guidance is showing us. Thats all.

Yeah that definitely works, but when looping through the ens, it also seems to have that stubborn trough in the SW, and as Ens guidance started to show on yesterdays 12 GEFS, that Aleutian ridge showing signs of progressing east in my mind is a good thing as the trough axis suppresses any WAR and creates a boundary (albeit zonal) that can lead to some opportunities around here. If NAO/AO arent going to help much, that ridge moving east at least keeps the door open for cold intrusions into the central/eastern areas. If those last to mentioned indicies decide to help, then we really get a nice longwave track that gets us all in the game. Tellies suggest those 2 domains trend better for us.

I'm about ready to sacrifice something to the weather gods..... At least based on the stats you shared, we have around a 40% chance of a -AO, and the AO has been responsible for some decent stretches of winter so theres that....... While unfortunate that we will likely lose some of Jan, if we can come around in what is typically the easiest month for it to snow, we'd all take a normal to rockin Feb.

man, I'm tellin ya....its just hard to look at. Its just painful to look at the ens. runs and see the ugliness. Only sliver of hope I could find is that at least there is less cutoff in the SW, and the flow is more zonal, but any flexing of the WAR and we will cook.

this answers my (others) questions as to why the MJO wants to get stuck into warm phases. Makes sense for sure. Thanks for the insight.

No....some/many of us wont....I purchased him for several years (and wxbell). I think he's great, but for my level of need, it didnt justify the expense....thats all. As many of you that dont like him (and his political rants...yes theyre a little much), many of us grew up watching him on weather world and following him on Accuwx. I will ALWAYS appreciate his abilities....done. Nut

x 2 JB loves snow and weather. I appreciate his passion and insight. As much as he looks for how things may correct in our favor, he also has no problem saying how things change or bust. He has a better long range nose than most in the business. Nut