pureet1948

That’s a fair read. I’ve noticed that while the GEFS remains persistent with Gulf-side development, the Euro (both deterministic and EPS) has leaned more strongly toward a coastal low forming near the Carolinas or offshore of the Southeast U.S.. Interestingly, a couple of ECENS outliers now suggest a westward Gulf track, possibly reaching Texas or the western Gulf coast around July 5–7. While these are certainly fringe solutions, they do raise questions about the evolution of the ridge and potential for a retrograde motion if steering collapses or shifts. Could be a case where subtle mid-level features tip the balance one way or the other. Still early, of course—but worth watching both domains closely. A lot hinges on where and when that initial low consolidates, and whether it gets caught in a trough or finds a path beneath the ridge.

Subject: ECENS Outliers Showing Westward Gulf Track? Hi all, While most guidance keeps the potential system off the Southeast U.S. coast/Northeast Gulf drifting east or northeast, I noticed that 2 ECENS members are showing a westward track across the Gulf, with one potentially targeting the Middle Texas Coast near Freeport. I understand these are long-range outliers, but given the consistent warm SSTs, a potentially retreating Southeast ridge, and the historical precedent (e.g., Alicia 1983), I'm curious what mechanisms might allow for such a westward solution—however low probability it may be. Would appreciate thoughts on: Whether this is just ensemble noise or a signal worth watching, The steering setup that could support a westward drift into the western Gulf, Any past analogs or support from other ensemble systems (e.g., GEFS, ICON-EPS). Thanks in advance—trying to distinguish a fluke from something that might trend.