WSNC

45 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

one thing to watch for is around day break on Monday if you live north of 85 around 77 and I40 models are showing some light precip with temps near freezing. 

12z RGEM, 12z Canadian, 12z 12km NAM, and 12z GFS para all show it. 

Lee dry slot starting to show on RGEM.  Anybody who lives near it knows it's legit in winter storms!

7 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

RDPS trending slightly warmer as well

+++

I don't see it.   

28 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

RGEM looks like it lost some qpf or is it showing more sleet? Anyone have the 18z RGEM Sleet Map?

That said, way outside of HRRR range.

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

For what it's worth the HRRR is heavy sleet for many 

Not sure about other areas, but the HRRR has been pretty good in my area for ptype this year.  

Taking just 25% of RGEM totals would still be worst ice storm I've had since 2002.

2 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Finally switched to mostly snow in Lewisville at 12:15

Same here just south of 421.  Picked up .15" of rain before the switch.  White rain for over an hour.  Transition was brutal!

8 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

How accurate relative to snow are models at predicting sleet accumulation?

Not sure, but looks like NAM is using just over 2 to 1 ratio, which seems low if anything.  I would imagine 3 to 1 is closer for sleet.  

This is trending into legit storm.   

Great year in mountains. 

Last one!  Hopefully this one will work out in triad.   Been under a WSW for 2 to 4" and a couple of WWA's for 1" with ice and nothing to show for it other than a couple of flizzards.  Better than some, but hopefully we'll have better luck going forward.  Hard not to get excited about pattern showing up on models.