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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. lol you must be new here. We track threats in winter. Why would we take a break? This is fun for us even when they don’t trend the way we want. We take a big break from about March 15 to Nov 15 every year.
  2. Busted way high on temps which I’m fine with, don’t wanna worry about bursting pipes.
  3. Yeah I’ll be watching for changes til at minimum 12z tomorrow. Pretty loaded situation in terms of potential. Models are swinging around run to run still so I don’t discount the possibility of big changes.
  4. Yeah it’s a miss for most to the east now, but not by that much. Also GEFS just trended the other way. It’s only Tuesday…
  5. Anyone know if we can access this new Google ensemble model?
  6. Roads are in terrible shape around here! Some roads that are normally two lanes of traffic have only one lane.
  7. Looks really good, throwing precip back to the wv panhandle is a good sign.
  8. I would LOVE 3-6 or 4-8 snow on snow in an arctic pattern with good ratios. But heck let’s get this to trend back to a blizzard, still possible.
  9. I really don’t hate this. At 130 hours this is perfect.
  10. Also we don’t need it all back in one run, many runs to go. We’ve seen this before, sniff something out, lose it, trend back to it.
  11. Euro ai trended nw, it’s a hit. Prob a little better than 12z.
  12. lol plz, we’ve seen storms shift 500 miles in 140 hours.
  13. ICON is 100 miles to the right of going boom for us. Shift the trough that much and we’re good.
  14. They’re all long shots. That’s why they don’t happen often lol. But that’s the fun of it! If you just look at the 144 panel of ai euro you’d be pumped. does anyone have the google ensemble for 12z?
  15. We can ask to be crushed by every run for 144 hours lol. But yes I agree, at this stage we need to be in the game, and we are.
  16. EPS shows all options on the table except a cutter, nuclear tuck crush job, OTS, and coastal scraper. I like it at this range.
  17. At 138 the EPS has a lotta members that would work for us.
  18. EPS looking good to me so far (90 hours) but also I am not very intelligent.
  19. Let’s see the ensembles. It was around this time frame for this last storm that we were switching from worried about suppression to mixing. The 12z guidance keeps us in the game which is what you want at this range.
  20. Hard shoveling and ice chopping! Been out all morning.
  21. CMC looks a lot better than 0z. Low in the gulf 108, 500 looks tasty.
  22. it was the last to catch on to a mixing event by a long ways for yesterdays storm
  23. This stuff is bulletproof, a pickup just came down my block and didn’t event dent this stuff. You could ice skate.
  24. Yeah and normally here it warms up in a few days, we rarely have a week of Adirondacks in Feb temps after a storm.
  25. The 144 panel on the euro is absurd weather porn for nyc metro. 1 inch QPF in 6 hours with ripping wind. Madness if that verifies.
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