2.5 inches of sleet on top of 4.5 inches of snow would be wild.
The NAM has been right, but it’s also fell on its face in embarrassing fashion close up to events as well so of course consider it but I wouldn’t assume 100 percent it is correct. Just have to keep it in mind as a possibility.
At this point u gotta just be in chips fall mode, if you get a ton of sleet that just happens sometimes. Always good to get to that zen whatever happens happens mode at around 24 hours. The atmosphere was always going to do what it was going to do and our computer simulations aren’t perfect yet.
good luck to all
I’ve been burned by this in the past. Never can completely toss it when it’s the most aggressive changeover. It has schooled the globals on this before.
RGEM is a pummeling, it's 1.4 QPF by 18z for DC with 0.7 falling in the 3 hour period 15z-18z. If we can get that kinda death band right before the change we could def get double digits in the metros.
Most of our mixing events over the years are snow to sleet to rain to 40+ degrees. This is a pretty cool and unique event with a very anomalous arctic airmass. The fact that plain rain isn’t even in the discussion is cool. Even if we “only” get 4-5 inches in dc and then ice and then arctic cold it’s still going to be awesome. True deep winter stuff coming.
I think now we can basically lock in mixing at least up to the M/D line and now we just hope the mesos hammer us with the thump. Hopefully the RGEM over the NAM is correct.
NAM is only 0.4 qpf for dc pre flip, ive learned that when the NAM shows a mixing related disaster scenario, take it seriously. Not saying its gonna happen, hopefully its still figuring out the Synoptics, but don’t write it off.
For dc Euro looks like about 0.8 qpf as snow, and then 0.6 qpf as sleet. 6-10 of snow and a thick layer of sleet, that’ll be a high impact event if it verifies.
Yeah who knows, I mean realistically with these complicated wave interactions you can get shifts up until 48 and even beyond but it just feels like they don’t shift back south very much.