SomeguyfromTakomaPark

It’s interesting how we frame this. “We bled”. Nothing actually happened, the atmosphere was always going to do what it was going to do. If you chose to believe that the computer simulated storms were real then this may seem like a bust, but many wise posters on here said be very wary of this setup and wait til Friday to believe a big snowstorm. also we have most models showing anywhere from 4-10 inches of snow for dc, then sleet, and maybe frza. This will likely be high impact winter storm. Even just 4 inches of snow and a bunch of sleet will almost verify the NWS forecast amounts.

Waited til 24 hours out to fold like a cheap suit. This thing gets slapped around by the real models so often it’s really not worth looking at. If it was from another country we’d probably treat it like the JMA. At any rate, even with the bad 850 low location we can still get a good thump. Just need it to come in hot and heavy.

Unmet would be a big disruptive event, 6-10 of snow tons of sleet then frz.

UK is a nice thump, about 0.7 pre flip for dc.

14 degrees in takoma park. Unbelievable it’s 14 degrees at almost lunch time and we’re talking about mixed precip lol.

It is amazing how early last week everyone told us suppression was our main concern. Weenies now melting down in the ny thread. First it was the SE, then us, then NYC.

Weenies gonna weenie. Tomorrow gonna be an awesome winter storm let’s just enjoy it!

If you believe the NAMs, yes. Let’s see if the 12z guidance moves further that direction.

3k is still 4-5 for dc before changeover. Not a bad low end goal post to have.

Yeah we even got lower than the NWS forecast by 2 degrees here, which is rare, usually the cold underperforms.

living and dying by hrrr runs 24 hours from game time is a recipe for not having fun.

7 inches of snow is a fail and no longer a thump ??? This is dc lol not Watertown NY.

Oh this is looking like a proper thump.

Euro is gonna go down swinging at least if it’s wrong , I’m riding it to the end.

6Z euro big again easily 8-10 for the metros.

6Z euro is ripping at 12z, looks great.

The only reason I’d be mad at the NAMs if they are right is because I wanna actually get some daylight heavy snow, 12z is basically sunrise. Hopefully we can hold off, this air mass is legit and maybe that’ll buy us some more time!

8 degrees! That’s really cold for mby! Looks like a very thumpy 0z euro. The NAMS are the earliest flip for DC right after 12z whereas the rgem, cmc, euro, and hrrr push it closer to 16z or 17z. Let’s hope the NAMs are still figuring out the Synoptics a bit. Either way, it’s gonna snow!

The dispensary in silver spring was packed when I drove by today. 4,000 mg of edibles is def necessary for a snowstorm lolz

I’m not sure if you’re responding to me or the general vibe. But I agree with you.

2.5 inches of sleet on top of 4.5 inches of snow would be wild. The NAM has been right, but it’s also fell on its face in embarrassing fashion close up to events as well so of course consider it but I wouldn’t assume 100 percent it is correct. Just have to keep it in mind as a possibility.

At this point u gotta just be in chips fall mode, if you get a ton of sleet that just happens sometimes. Always good to get to that zen whatever happens happens mode at around 24 hours. The atmosphere was always going to do what it was going to do and our computer simulations aren’t perfect yet. good luck to all

I’ve been burned by this in the past. Never can completely toss it when it’s the most aggressive changeover. It has schooled the globals on this before.

I hate it but usually just take the guidance that blasts the mix line fastest and furthest north is usually right.

Freezing rain would be a real problem here given the low temps and high qpf.