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1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

1"???

re: everyone else: tran·si·tion  1. the process or a period of changing from one state or condition to another.

The Aleutian ridge is just starting to insert itself, so be careful for what happens next. 15 days away... 

lol 7 replies

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You ever done mushrooms?

You must have two hours ago looking at the GEFS 

18 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I dont know wtf he is talking about. There is no SE ridge anywhere on the GEFS.

Apparently they moved Florida. 

29 minutes ago, George001 said:

I mean yeah, if I had more knowledge of meteorology that would certainly help, I’m not denying that. That is why I choose to read and learn from people who know a lot more than I do such as the Pope, Bluewave, Raindance etc. Hell I’m willing to keep and open mind and listen to those who I disagree with but acknowledge know their shit better than I do. You want to listen to someone who understands meteorology rather than a hobbyist who’s still lacking in that area? That’s completely fair, but most of the forecasts I have seen are for an AN temp winter. 

Bluewave? lol he is NYC’s version of the great scientist of our time!! 

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t need any actual knowledge of meteorology

Admitting the problem is the first step to recovery 

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We have a good pattern setting up for Dec 29-Jan 2, then it looks like the Aleutian island ridge comes on strong hr384 on 12z GEFS. By the end of the run, the pattern is transitioning toward possibly a SE ridge. 

Did they relocate the southeast USA? 

Just now, WinterWolf said:

So you think that AGW is causing no snow this December?  Lmao!!!  What was it when we had good Decembers?  What was it when we had bad Decembers 20 yrs ago? 50’yrs ago? Stay in your own silly world.  Sometimes things just don’t work out…for a myriad of reasons.   
 

Things are looking up as we go along…if they flop, you can have the credit that you were right. 

Congrats he mentioned you in a post in the NYC city thread. Called out you and I on a post I made. If he believes in AGW why in the hell did he predict one blizzard after another  last winter for Boston? Called for 100”. He’s living proof anyone can be brainwashed into believing anything. 

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

also, for like the millionth time, northern Canada can be +10 and it won't really matter for us since their normals are so much lower. it's always warm in Canada during Ninos, even in prolific periods

Some people are just unreachable. They are miserable so they try to make everyone else miserable too. I really wonder why some keep posting since Canada's warm. No snow anywhere. Ignore the long range guidance they say because they KNOW!!! 

13 minutes ago, George001 said:

Fair enough, but based on what I’m seeing my opinion is that we are going to be fighting temps for most of this winter. Borderline super nino, strong -PDO, roaring pacific jet, and record low snow cover for our source regions. The Pope brought this up multiple times, but people keep ignoring it. Instead of ignoring him, I am choosing to read and learn from his posts. He knows his shit, and he’s usually right. 

You can tell what temps are going to be in January, February and March on December 21st?? 

1 minute ago, George001 said:

Good ol AGW denying Wolfie calling people dummies. Pot calling the kettle black much?

You should post in the NYC forum. You would fit right in. 

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, notice that the source region has gone from the Pacific to northern Canada, AK, and the Arctic circle. follow the streamlines

Impossible according to the NYC crowd. It’s warmth and no snow if you believe them. 

7 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

 

Someone's been following Joe Bastardi on twitter.  You gonna blame underwater volcanoes next?

Is china currently in a month long cold spell shattering records on not? Yes or no? Is Germany also? There is lots of cold covering the northern hemisphere. Just because NYC isn’t cold doesn’t mean climate change is running wild. I believe the globe has warmed. It always has. It always will. It will also cool. Always have always will. I was alive in the 1970’s when the earth was supposed to be entering an ice age. Depleted ozone layer was going to kill us all in the 1980’s. Al Gore predicted by now we would all be buried under water. Guess what? None of it ever happened just like all the doom and gloom crowd is saying now. Everything will be fine. Enjoy life. Greta Thornberg lol 

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The greater underlying issue is our rapidly warming climate. This has produced the record warming in the Western Pacific which in turn leads to slower and more amplified MJO 4-7 phases. So there were several underlying issues compounding the warmth potential in addition to the oversimplified El Niño means warm December explanations. The reason the source regions were working against us for cold is the combination of all the factors I mentioned above.

+10 monthly departures over parts of North America have become more common and just can’t be reduced to saying it’s expected during an El Niño. DFW went +13.2 in the December 2021 La Niña when there was an interaction with the very amplified MJO 6-7 even by RMM chart standards which worked in that case. 

Rapidly warming climate? I guess we ignore Beijing China just shattered their all time record low for December by 5 degrees?? Germany was buried in snow and cold early this month. Planes were frozen on the runway due to the cold and snow.  There was lots of cold this month. Just not on our side of the globe. It has happened before it will happen again. And when the cold comes to our side and china gets +10 departures and Germany is 70 degrees you will point that out. But when it’s cold over there the CC crew is silent 

More records tumble as China cold snap persists

Beijing (AFP) – More low temperature records tumbled across China on Thursday, as the country endures a persistent cold snap.

2 hours ago, Kay said:

This is an age-old, circular, meta debate on all forums ever, which will never be solved, but imho it is better to mute posters than to post 15 times a day on how and why other people's posts suck, how they have always tended to suck, and how you expect them to suck going fwd. Not everyone is into using ignore features and that's fine. But, again only imho, the complaints, if excessive enough, become as annoying as the trash posts. Some complaining is cool though, like I am doing here

It’s also funny to read all the regions posts and see how different posters can be. In the New England thread and this region’s threads long range discussion there seems to be optimism on the pattern unfolding around new years into the month of January. And correctly so I believe. But reading the NYC forum one would think it’s time to till the garden and get ready to plant. Same guidance they are looking at but it’s really a forum led by trolls and CC agenda driven posters. That whole regions posters should be ignored 

36 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Unfortunately you haven’t been 5 posted yet. You have become by far the worst poster on the board. 

I agree although 99% of the posters in the NYC forum could give him a run for his money 

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Pain 

 

 

Ok see you in February allsnow 

The IO MJO forcing is going to be competing with the forcing from the Nino standing wave. Eric uses Paul Roundy’s plots to show the atmospheric response leading to the RNA, as he said, this is not a “classic” La Niña RNA with a monster SE ridge. I also think the PAC jet is being badly undermodeled by the long range models as we have seen time and again, the very strong El Niño is only lending more credibility to this. The lack of snowcover/ice is another huge issue for cold. My guess is that January ends up warmer than normal with below average snow. I know you disagree and we are in 2 different camps here. I’m standing by this and we will see how this all works out in a month. If I’m wrong, so be it