Retrobuc

14 / 6 / 3

On 4/8/2025 at 8:54 AM, BarryStantonGBP said:

they predicted the 2024 and 2023 seasons the same way

they were the only company to predict a lower number of NS for 2024 and higher for 2023

I'd seriously consider them

Do you get paid by them?  Just curious since you are pushing them so hard

9 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Mix line down to Florida 

 

 

I moved to Florida 5 years ago after a lifetime in NJ and this is the coldest winter since Ive been here.  40s at night, 50s/60s during the day for the last 2-3 weeks.  This graph makes me want to move further south!

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 This is well known. The first one that was seeded was one in 1947 that was moving NE OTS, meaning a seemingly safe one to seed. However, shortly afterward, it turned sharply (135 degrees to a westerly heading) and subsequently hit Savannah. There’s the possibility that the seeding weakened it enough to lower the mean steering level, which conceivably could have helped lead to more influence from a high to the north. I believe that that sharp turn and subsequent landfall lead to a stoppage of that program.

 But I feel that bringing up these past experiments now is a red herring because they’re not occurring now. Marjorie T. Greene lied about this for pure political purposes, of course. She decided to just make up that “they” (meaning Democrats) were controlling Helene. The best thing would be for the media to ignore her.

You would never know if experiments like this were going on now anyway.  I'm not saying the government is purposely trying to send storms and injure people, that's crazy.  However, it is equally as crazy to think these types of programs are not going on regularly and sometimes go awry, like the hurricane seeding did.  Ask yourself how many things labeled conspiracy theories since 2020/Covid have actually been proven to have a high likelihood of being true or outright true?

27 minutes ago, Hotair said:

US Mets face death threats after hurricane Milton, Helene misinformation 

 

people are nuts and to think we share this world with them. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/11/meteorologists-death-threats-hurricane-conspiracies-misinformation

Its not like the government has never tried to manipulate the weather...

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/almost-science-fiction-hurricane-modification-and-project-stormfury

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s at the point in some of that area from Ft Myers north to near Sarasota where you have to ask whether it’s worth it to rebuild. 5 hurricane hits either direct or close enough for significant damage in the last 3 years-Ian, Idalia, Debby, Helene and now Milton. I have no idea how many hoops you’ll have to jump through or deep your wallet has to be to get flood/hurricane insurance there soon. You can build better and more resilient for wind, that doesn’t help with water unless your home is high enough above sea level or you spend probably tens of billions on mitigation like seawalls, which climate change will render moot anyway because of rising sea levels. 

Does any one have a non biased source that documents historical sea levels for Florida towns?  there seems to be no shortage of people wanting to own on barrier islands even with these storms. Id like to see historical sea level heights to pattern what the rise actually is.  

Just now, NoCORH4L said:

It was never going north of TB, let's be serious.

Only folks on this chat board were hyping north of Tampa

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It was more likely than not to lose strength, sure. Models highlighted the shear and dry air in the eastern Gulf for a few days. But it was also moving over 85+ degree water, and small changes to the jet interaction, steering, dry air etc could’ve made for a much different outcome. Michael in 2018 wasn’t expected to come in as a Cat 5, if I remember right it was supposed to weaken or be a Cat 2, maybe Cat 3. The center of the cone was south of Tampa for a couple days but a couple of northerly wobbles over 48hrs would’ve brought it into Tampa or north. And you have to warn a major metro like Tampa well ahead of time, we all saw the packed highways and stations out of gas. What natural barriers or dunes there were for protection were also lost in Helene. Sure media especially national oversensationalizes all the time, but I totally understood the need to prepare and evacuate for the areas that did. Much better than Clearwater for example not preparing and the wobbles N plus less shear and less weakening happen and they’re now staring down a borderline Cat 5. That was in the window of possibility, fairly unlikely but could’ve caused a massive number of casualties from lack of preparation. Imagine the outcry then? 

The local media was clear that you should evacuate if your zone called for that.  I think the local level of info was right on.  if you lived on a barrier island from Cedar Key to Ft Myers and chose not to leave or take precautions, that's on you, not local officials or lack of information.  

12 minutes ago, dseagull said:

That's not how risk assessment works in emergency planning.   The costs of making an incorrect call like that (in terms of human life,) are not a gamble any coordinator are going to be willing to take.  

 

These individuals are advised by the experts (who may suggest not ordering an evacuation,) but the meterorlogists do not have the final say.   There's a strict protocol that is adhered to, although it may vary from municipality to municipality or from county to county.  

 

Its easy for us to conclude that it was unnecessary or overhyped.   I won't argue with that.   But... you're only looking at it from a narrow perspective, and that's understandable.  So much more is involved, however. 

By the same token, we cant have public officials like the Mayor of Tampa saying things like "if you choose to stay you WILL die".  That's sensationalism that makes people tune out.  What happened to the days of stating facts, giving the best information at the time, explain first responders will not be available for rescues and let people decide their course of action.  Hype and sensationalism have caused much of people's distrust with information.

52 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

I strongly disagree.   There are risks and consequences associated with "preparing".   

Many educated people I know did not understand this storm would begin to dissipate before it made landfall.  Many people prepared for a CAT 5 and that was NEVER in the forecast.   

 

Sometimes reacting causes more problems than sitting quietly. 

There is a big difference between national media coverage and local media coverage.  The local media did a great job explaining that the storm would begin to lose strength as it neared Florida and that tornadoes would be a problem.  The national coverage I watched explained none of that.  From my perspective, the forecasts from the local Orlando region news media were spot on.  They called the heavy rain band that went through my area, the back end winds and east coast storm surge.  If your perspective is national coverage, you did not get the same level of detail, which is to be expected.

9 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Looks like Daytona is taking it on chin this morning. They are used to these (now usual) backside storms and they seem to cause more damage for area than storms that graze them from ocean

Gusting to 59 kts currently

I measured 18.2 inches of rain and a local news outlet posted winds of 86 MPH in Daytona.  It was incredible and an intense 5 hours overnight.

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Looking like may be as early as a 7-8PM landfall! Opinions?

8PM is accurate IMO.

1 minute ago, skillsweather said:

If a man holds a metal rod to the sky and gets struck by lightning to that man that is a crazy experience but to everyone else its nothing because while they all can see lightning and know the dangers they also don't hold the metal rod in their hand to the sky during a storm. Same thing with a hurricane and living on a beach having a hurricane hit your house is not abnormal its normal. having a hurricane hit your house with surge in Kansas now that would be abnormal or would you guys call that normal? surely not. Anyways. Hurricanes are normal heck even in February Florida was hit with a tropical storm.. But during hurricane season a hurricane hitting is nothing crazy. Interesting sure but stop pretending its abnormal! its not. Its 100% normal its actually expected and if anything its abnormal to NOT have a hurricane in the Gulf/Atlantic. The bigger topic should be why rebuild next to the beach over and over. If there is reason (which im sure there is) then thats that. You take the risk understanding the risk and accept the risk for that "reasoning". Everyone else should not live in active damage zones. Insurance companys would agree and anyone with half a brain as well.

If you guys disagree with this so much lets take out a bet I bet in the next 10 years Florida is hit with more then 10 Cat 3+ hurricanes. And that the gulf will have more then 30 Hurricanes. I think thats a safe bet so if you think maybe more or less the same in regards to that then why would you with a brain build/live on a beach with 0 reasons other then to just live right? That would be crazy then to blame the weather after the fact??  How about we start to make better choices where to live. Try to see if zoning would let you build a house on the edge of a cliff that is constantly being eroded. There is a reason we have code enforcements so why not for things of this caliber? Where you carry the risk and cant cry to the mass's for help when your choice was to live in a flood zone that floods yearly or at least every so often.

Thanks.

Just now, dbullsfan said:

This thing looks like it got shot out of a canon to the ENE last few frames. 

 

Hurricane Milton live wobble tracker (wfla.com)

Hard to believe landfall is predicted after 10pm, seems like it will be much earlier

1 minute ago, NoCORH4L said:

Peeps in main thread acting like this thing is falling apart to a CAT1 again

I havent seen any of that

Many of the local mets in Orlando are calling for landfall near Sarasota or south and is moving faster than has been forecasted.  Landfall around 10pm, off the coast by noon tomorrow

15 hours ago, dbullsfan said:

Not sure if its been mentioned yet but I'm a little worried that with the easy access to the coastline up and down the Tampa Bay area that this storm is going to bring out a lot of amateur storm chasers that don't have the proper training, knowledge or equipment to handle this kind of storm. 

The definition of Darwinism...

39 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Greatest County in the World

 

 

I just found this out a few weeks ago, my son's friend works there and told me.  Who ever thought this was a good idea?

1 minute ago, marsman said:

The exodus has begun.

That doesnt look any dfferent than most weekdays in the area.  

What are the chances this continues to move north beyond TPA and into the Cedar Key area?

1 hour ago, madwx said:

 

the GOM area of interest - this still has a good chance to develop but the ceiling is more limited as it’s lifted NE over Florida

 

 

As a Florida resident, interested in the GOM chance.  We avoided any effects from helene, but am not seeing much discussion on here about this next chance.  I'm hoping the lack of discussion is a good thing.

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

If I put you on the spot, well, you just made a post inquiring pros and cons about stepping away from the pack. So without empirical datum, you just played devils advocate and went with average numbers knowing a 20-25% failure of climate precursors, and you are sailing to victory and looking quite brilliant and bold. lol... I appreciate the honesty versus jumping on the WAM strength/OS Index/Tonga/+NAO etc., etc... things we are trying to resolve in situ.

I should also point out that you can still have a hyperactive season and only have 13 named storms based on metrics being ACE. Granted, that means the insanity of nearly all TCs being long-lived hurricanes or powerful majors. At any rate, I digress. I am pretty sure we know what you meant by hyperactive.

I'm not a weather forecaster and dont pretend to be.  I follow this page because it provides interesting information that you cant get elsewhere.  So, my method (naïve forecast)  may not be something supported by Colorado State or an official agency, but it shows that trends and mathematical data can be just as useful as maps and analogs.  I did not play devils advocate, I felt that everyone being 50% higher than the highest ever peak was far too bullish.  Looking back at history, previous bullish calls missed by 25-30%.  Therefore, I went with the lower baseline and discounted slightly more.  Dont get me wrong, I could care less whether I am right or wrong.  I am more interested in methodology and how pros use this to correct their modeling.

25 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

46 minutes ago, Retrobuc said:

I'm a lurker, but I do financial modeling/forecasting for a living.  Since every model called for a hyperactive season, how much do you feel groupthink plays into this?  Meterology has become a business and it may be safer to stay with the pack than it is to venture out on your own.  Its easier to be wrong with the group than to be wrong as an outlier.  Interested to know what people here think.
For the record, I said this season would be 13/8/2 in the contest.  I feel pretty good about those numbers.

Better yet, what was your reasoning in only going with 13 named storms in the face of overwhelming model and climate parameter support for a hyperactive season? I mean, you're sharing your numbers while knowing full well the majority of the best TC climatologists on the planet are scrambling for answers. 13 named storms is barely average.

I went with those numbers based on another post that showed deviation from the previous high forecast calls.  I took that as a baseline and then discounted from there simply using a calculation, not one bit of empirical weather data. 

I'm a lurker, but I do financial modeling/forecasting for a living.  Since every model called for a hyperactive season, how much do you feel groupthink plays into this?  Meterology has become a business and it may be safer to stay with the pack than it is to venture out on your own.  Its easier to be wrong with the group than to be wrong as an outlier.  Interested to know what people here think.

For the record, I said this season would be 13/8/2 in the contest.  I feel pretty good about those numbers.

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Here is fwiw a copy of some excerpts from a post I made on 4/7/24 regarding the extremely bullish April CSU forecast:

“I see a pretty clear pattern when they’ve gone very active in April:

2. NS days: They’re predicting 115. Prior to this the highest they predicted in April was 85-95 (four times). All four of those progs ended up too high. The highest actual of those four was only 58 and they averaged a whopping 40.5 too high!

3. # H: They’re predicting 11. The prior highest predicted in April was 9 (six times). All of those 6 progs ended up too high by an average of 3.

7. ACE: They’re predicting 210. The prior highest predicted in April were 160-183 (five times). Of these five, all progs ended up too high with even the closest still being 34 too high! The five averaged a whopping 85.8 too high!

Conclusion: If I were a betting man, I’d short CSU’s April ‘24’s forecast overall, especially NS Days, # H, and ACE.”

 

To me the CSU forecast was always too bullish and it seems to have become a game of groupthink after that.  You should always be cautious when forecasts for anything are 4-6x higher than the highest point.