konksw

Gnarly looking line. 

Damn it is windy out there. 

I don’t know about 70 today. A lot of cloud cover behind this rain 

58 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

60 now here.  Time for a run!

Yeah l’m pumped for my afternoon run.  Up to 62. 65 may have been a lowball. 

55 and sunny in NW DC. I think 65+ isn’t off the table at this rate. 

8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The pattern on the the latest Euro Weeklies continues to look potentially workable for the last 2 weeks of March.

For me I’m just ready for warmth by that point and given we are aiming for the warmest winter on record snow at the end of March feels unlikely. 

52 in my part of DC. Feels like spring out there. Strong sun angle. 

2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

That radar is garbage 

Actual radar of the area showing actual snow falling. 

6 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I think you all need to be careful on some of those radar images a lot of those radars overhype precip and show virga. This one below is rather good I find and it sadly is very hrrr esk 

i find the precip orientation to be problematic. Just look at it! I find temps to be a problem for initial stickage in the cities. 
 

We will snow but there is no question in my mind that we significantly underperform nws totals. 
 

 

 

 

I am sorry but it is clearly not raining or mixed in snowshoe as you radar is depicting. 

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If this underperforms should there be a post mortem what went wrong write up?

The storm was always going to do what it was going to do. The post mortem would be that models are just that and shouldn’t be read as gospel. It’s also possible it overperforms. We won’t know till it happens because all we have are models. 

Radar looks great. 

Man can we quit it with the HRRR. 

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

2 things. 

1) They aren't really drying up right now. They haven't showed more than 4" across the area for the event the whole way along.. It's only suppose to snow moderately for 3-4 hours. that's why I'm like, why is the NWS predicting 5-8"? The radar and ground elements must be awesome. 

2) Last storm they dried up last minute, and it verified. I know in the higher elevations you had like 6", but where I am I went from 4-6" on models to 1-2", and ended up with a dusting.. the whole area less than 500-1000ft experienced the same thing. That's why in these marginal temp situations the 1:10 Kuchera maps are especially wrong.. the snow fell very wet and light because warmer temps went into some of the upper levels of the atmosphere. 

I'm at 39F and it will probably drop down to 32-33, but for 10:1 results you usually need to be in the 20s. 

Thunder snow near St Louis. 

Just now, ovechkin said:

50 currently downtown. LOL. blew past the projected high of 46. Typical DC  winter M.O. now... watch it cloud over just in time for sunset and then watch for the 1 degree drop every 4 hours. Will see what wet bulbs are with the low later with the low dews. But it's always just so warm in the immediate metro.  

47 in Mt. Pleasant. 

NAM 3k with some gnarly rates over DC at hr 13. 

I feel a NAMing in our near future. 

I’m really impressed that the winter storm can discern between Chevy Chase MD and Chevy Chase DC in terms of snow amounts. 

Seems a bit fatalistic to be too concerned over 1 operational run of a global model less than half a day from precip start time. 

Feels like another storm that will come in Niño juiced and surprise. Would love to see a WSW get posted again. 

1 minute ago, Negnao said:

Surprised there’s not more panic about the north trend. The wiggle room for dc is gone. 

Eh. There is very little time left. 12 hours until snowfall. 

The question is now. Will I stay up late enough to go out in the really heavy stuff.

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It did well for one or both of the Jan events, but a terrible job with the recent one a few days ago

Ehhh. During the first even it didn’t even have the storm in the same location as the radar lol. It was sending the snow to like Altoona. 

Has the feeling of an over performer.