500 mbvort

20 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said:

 

Some of the issues with that mid-December event:

1) Dry profiles

2) Lower delta-Ts (850s were closer to -8C) and shallower arctic air

3) Significant veering between sfc-850mb

4) Weaker model support in terms of intensity/duration

 

I think we have a more favourable setup this time, but we'll see what happens tomorrow. RADAR won't be too helpful given the shallow nature of the banding. With lower beam heights, KBUF will likely pick up on it better than WKR.

Should be interesting to watch this unfold tomorrow. Here’s hoping for some decent totals.

7 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Thinking back to that "event" in mid-December when all the models were gung-ho on a major east wind LES event and nothing materialized.  If you do this for a living, I don't envy you.  

At least this is more of a seeder-feeder/LEnhS event so I think it's more a question of where and not if. 

IIRC that event had lots of dry air to contend with?

23 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Interesting to see the trend of having the band impact the City.   Sfc low well to the south so normally this would back the winds enough to keep everywhere east of Oakville out of the game.  This band might be rooted further up in the atmosphere were winds are more ELY?

Wonder if this ends up producing more than the Tuesday storm? Do soundings support lake effect?

43 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

That was the old days with the nipher gauge.  They switched to a snow saber about 5 years or so and they've been fine since (Dare I say maybe even a bit generous with their measurements at times?).  I'm about 10 minutes from the airport and that report is not crazy. 

Didn’t know that actually thanks for letting me know. Wonder if we get more snow late this week than this system. Looks like lake effect potential is good?

13 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

 Yeah, this storm really underperformed. Only 11cm at YYZ. Another one to add to our list. 

The November storm still reigns as our biggest storm this winter. 

Meh wouldn’t trust the YYZ report as they always underestimate. Looks loke

more snow rolling in that can maybe push totals to 6”?

14 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

We did have a big dog in late January 2019. but, yes, it's rare.

Those accumulation maps posted yesterday would have nailed it...if they were in centimetres. not inches!

But Jan 2019 was a localized big dog. Region wide it’s been awhile. Maybe feb 2015?

Just now, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Very disappointing, especially when you consider all the hype.

Usually how it goes around here. That’s why yyz struggles to get 12” big dogs consistently heck even 8” seem tough to come by.

2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Hey, nice to meet you.

Yeah, well, that's how we roll here in the Six. 

Over 100cm/40" for the season officially though.  4th straight year.  Haven't done that since the 70s if you're looking for a bit of a silver lining.

Definitely doesn’t seem like we’ve had that much the last few years probably because it’s been so mild we haven’t been able to sustain a snowpack. Thought for sure we’d be a lock for 6-8” based on what I was hearing upstream from the Midwest posters. Damn flake size lol.

49 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Bust. Calling it about 5" but with the drifting it's impossible to tell.  Snow shut off around 4am so we had no chance at anything significant with only 7 hours of accumulations.  Definitely a 15:1+ ratio snow though, very airy.  

Very disappointing tbh. Couldn’t even the crack the 6” mark with the main system plus the first wave was a bust. Oh well.

14 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Remember where this current storm was at this point before it for Thursday's storm. Wagons will be moving left soon.

Classic windshield wiper effect on the models. 

3 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

18z NAM is east. Let's see if it's the beginning of a cave. 

To me it looks the same as 12z.

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Welcome

The bar is low for the GFS... and I'm mainly talking about how far northwest it snows.  

Should clarify I’m talking about the NAM.

22 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm gonna say the 00z NAM will have a better look than the 00z GFS.  Prove me wrong GFS.

First time poster long time lurker. You really think so? At 84 it looks more like what the GEM was doing at 12z.