WxWSW

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

You have wiggle room because of the excellent antecedent air mass. Never want to say never in weather but I think your area will be okay. Ohio is more of an issue with east and southward extent.

 

 

 

what are your thoughts for the portage, mi area? GRR has this as a non event pretty much atm.

4 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

If only the GFS would verify.  Nearly 3' IMBY.  However the Euro says no way.  Give me less than 12".  Either way, definitely looking to double my YTD snowfall and maybe more.

3 hours ago, frostfern said:

Lake effect is always weird in terms of measurement.  Very high winds can cut down on the fluff factor, as can a low DGZ causing more plate-dominant snow.  Think you'd need 25:1 ratio at least to get three feet out of any model output.  Lake effect is always better than 10:1, but you need temps in the mid 20s and wind under 15 mph to get the crazy 20:1 ratio dendrite-dominant feather-fluff.  Even then it doesn't really feel like as much as the official measurement because when it gets deeper than 6" it settles fast under it's own weight even within 6-12 hours of falling.

From GRR:

High confidence in Arctic air outbreak Sunday through at least
the middle part of the following week, but the daily details are
still unclear. Still some suggestion of a synoptic system possibly
developing along the baroclinic zone to our south Saturday
night/Sunday which may lead to some some synoptic snows followed
by lake effect with several more inches possible. However the
latest ECMWF now has quite a bit of sfc ridging moving in early
next week which could limit the lake effect potential. If that
did occur though, winds would be lighter and wind chills would
not be as brutal than if strong westerly flow persists as
suggested by the GFS. Other complicating factor farther out in
terms of daily specifics and additional snow amounts is whether
or not any clipper systems will be dropping in from the northwest.

How's the lake effect snow totals looking like for sunday and monday? NWS mentioned above that it could be limited. I am in kzoo

Lake effect looking good this upcoming weekend for Michigan snowbelts no?