PeteThe Greek

25 minutes ago, Mitchel Volk said:

Impressive global warming I think Contribute to this.  Warmer ocean more moisture and energy for storm development.

This is exactly why in my opinion as well. But with todays political climate, someone can get mad at you for just saying that. Which to me is ignorant of facts. Those numbers are spectacularly lopsided when looked at in a mathematical sense. 

COOL FACT...

NYC began recording weather data in 1868. So in the first 128 years of recording weather data, NYC currently only has 2 storms on the top 10 list of all-time greatest snowstorms for NYC... 1888 & 1947 respectively. That's from 1868 to 1995.

Since then, the last 25 years (1996 to 2021), NYC has 8 of the top 10 greatest storms!!! That is simply amazing!

First 128 years..... 2 top 10 storms.

Last 25 years...... 8 top 10 storms.

Thought you guys would like this. 

Pete

NOTE: I wrote this before I found out NBC tweeted the wrong 18.3" Central Park measurement, that is was actually 16.3". But if CP can get 2.0 inches over the next day, then this post applies. 

Hey guys & gals, 

What radar do you guys use. TWC radar is pathetic. I give up after years of using it. Tried the NWS' radar but it seems terrible or i am doing something wrong with the settings, which is not very detailed. Thanks in advance! 

Puking snow here in Glen Oaks, Queens. It is REALLY coming down hard with big flakes. We have about 7" down so far by eye. Very impressive so far and the main show hasn't even begun yet! Radar looks great and will only get much better! Filling in rapidly. 

14 minutes ago, Nibor said:

You can get the Hi-Res Euro for free here:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2021020100&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Thank you kindly! 

Just now, Gravity Wave said:

Yes, although I might push the start of that range up to 8:00 given the HRRR depiction. You'll at least want to be checking the radar by then so you can see when the heavy banding will be arriving.

Oh I'll be checking the radar... ALL day, trust me! We don't get storms like this everyday around these parts! We could be looking at a top 5 all time stormIF everything goes right. At least top 5-7. Thank you for your input! 

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Euro 20+” all the way into northern suffolk. Nothing like seeing the best model have the snowiest run during the storm. 

Can you post a panel? I don't think Tropical Tidbits that I use has snowfall total panels.Correct me if I am wrong. Thanks! 

Just now, Gravity Wave said:

At this point I don't think we're looking at 1 band that's just going to sit over an area, there's going to be a series of heavy bands rotating in and moving north. The largest looks like it'll come through in midafternoon. 

Yes, seen several waves pushing through headed north on those panels. As much as we strive to get these snow totals, its actually refreshing to know we can never even try to predict where these CCB bands will setup. I love the randomness of it all. Leaves something to the imagination instead of constantly insisting to have an answer for everything. I would say prime rapid accumulation hours on monday would be from 11am to 6pm. Would that sound correct to you? 

3 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Ignore the Ptype depiction on the HRRR. I checked some soundings and it's all snow through the end of the run (5:00 PM) for everyone Nassau and west.

Thank you. I figured it was off. Even precipitation to its west was all over the place. Not even correct unreal time. When can we expect a true model representation of where these CCB bands will set up shop? Curious as CCB's are hard to pinpoint. Thanks again. 

3 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

4Z HRRR has 2" of liquid equivalent in the city by 5:00 PM tomorrow.

HRRR depicting sleet/mix into the system just after noon. What are your thoughts on this? The threat of ANY mixing would've been for monday late evening or night, NOT noon monday! That should be CCB own age time. Is it the HRRR just warming mid-levels too soon? The low does seem to track too close to the coast, but not sure it is accurate. Don't see that on the other models.