blueheronNC

3 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

It's just basically a GFS knockoff.  these "inhouse" models are never reliable outside 24hrs.

Completely unacceptable that a WRAL meteorologist would tweet this output and suggest there's a chance the low could be that far west.

Didn't realize this forum still existed. Dusting off the ol' login in almost three years for this.

7 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Well, your numbers don't lie. It would be a big jump in viewership. My personal preference for local news in Charlotte is what I gave. I still stand by my statement of interesting weather. There's a lot more snow and ice to forecast out of Charlotte north and west than there is out of Raleigh (as many posters on this site will bemoan).

It would be a big loss for our area if he left, but if WRAL would double his salary it might be difficult to refuse. I would have to imagine Panovich has had multiple offers from other stations over the past several years due to his savvy social media interaction, and yet he still resides in Charlotte. So, I hope that will still be the case for the foreseeable future.

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It'll be interesting to see if anyone from WRAL's current bench wants to step up into the role of chief.  Mike Maze is dependable but does the weather in a straightforward way like you can find anywhere.  The natural successor would've been Mike Moss if anyone, but unfortunately he retired just recently.  He's the sort of guy who could forecast the weather with a DIFAX chart and ink pen if he had to.  Wonder if they can bring him back.

59 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I would love to see Matthew East at WRAL.

As far as Fishel resigning, it really is bizarre. He was gone for about a month this same time last year, and they said it was a medical leave. This sounds really bad, and whatever is going on interfered with his job. I wonder if it is alcohol or drug related. Whatever it is, I hope he gets the help he needs and gets better. This is just a tremendous loss for WRAL and weather geeks in the Triangle area. I grew up watching Fishel, and he was a big reason why I became so interested in the weather. 

Fishel is a big reason why I became so interested in weather and I grew up in Florida!  I remember ordering VHS tapes by mail from WRAL documenting the NC hurricanes of 1996, and Greg's scientific approach to weather got me interested in delving deep into the science.  It was a stroke of luck that work and family brought me here to watch him live. 

15 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

 

 

Whoa-there! Why is Charlotte a bad gig? He gets to cover a variety of conditions from mountains to sandhills. It's a bigger media market than anything else in NC too. And, I definitely prefer his NBC affiliate over the ABC affiliate. CBS is about equal to NBC in Charlotte, IMO. Brad P doesn't need to go anywhere.

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NBC Charlotte is way down in a distant third place for news viewership in that market.  Brad sort of has a niche/cult following right now but isn't well known.  In the latest Nielsen viewership numbers for 6pm newscasts, WSOC had 109k viewers, WBTV 104k, and WCNC 47k.  It's a step up to go from that to the runaway #1 broadcast in the Triangle (WRAL 111k, WTVD 84k, WNCN 25k for the same sweeps period). 

Charlotte is the #23 media market DMA while Raleigh is #25.  It's a lateral move in terms of media market tier but to a station with orders of magnitude more cachet.

9 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Just plain sigh...

The rest of the WRAL weather bench are pretty standard fare in terms of xs and os.  They show the end result/conclusions not the why behind the forecast logic.  What a huge loss.  Brad Panovich is too good to be at a third-place Charlotte news station - just sayin’.

13 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Well, the wording of his statement "I take full responsibility for my actions ..." kind of suggests to me that he did something bad to someone else.  I could mention the first thing that comes to mind, but it would be baseless speculation.  Man, I am bummed  I grew up with him.

Perhaps his FB post from 2017 is telling of some of the personal struggles he's been going through:

"Fishel has been open in Facebook posts about various struggles. In 2017, he wrote about how playing golf with his son (Fishel and his wife Kathy have two sons) turned too competitive and that a hobby he started for enjoyment was causing him to come home angry, so he was quitting the game.

Fishel wrote: “I simply cannot do this anymore. Maybe more time with the tuba, or develop some new hobby I’m not even aware of as I write this. I am very aware of the fact that a lot of people suffer when I’m down in the dumps, like everyone around me! I owe it to them as well as myself to find something that brings me fulfillment as opposed to frustration, and happiness instead of sadness.”

2 minutes ago, FatherNature said:

From my untrained eye, the CC for RDU looks to be retreating a little... or are my eyes blind?

Seems like it’s retreating south a bit.  HRRR holds it at bay through 7-8am or so.  I’d take that at this point.

Boy that CC line is so far north already. North of Pittsboro through Apex.

Still all snow here ITB Raleigh but the CC is about 5 miles to my south.

18 minutes ago, Cornsnow said:

Is this really any different than any other storm. We really do not know. It is rinse and repeat. Eroding CAD, rain/snow/sleet/ice line setting up somewhere along the 85 corridor. Climatology always wins here except for every once a decade it seems. It all depends on the track of the low and strength of the CAD and we really do not know how it sets up until go time!

Pretty much this.  I’d say it’s classic climatology with a few things working AGAINST it.  Source air region isn’t that cold.  Antecedent in situ air isn’t that dry (dewpoints in the 20s, not 0s/teens).  Early season warmer inshore waters promoting closer-in energy handoff and coastal low track (watch Southport, NC climb into the 60s during the event as the low passes nearshore). 

12z Euro was a devastating run for RDU.  Almost no snow.

Is ITB Raleigh always a rain hole like it's been this year since I moved here?  It's hilarious sitting under a Flash Flood Warning with only a T with radar drying up while 10 miles west is getting inches upon inches.  I just turned our sprinklers on since through this PWAT 2.0"+ pattern all week I've picked up 0.62" (and only 0.02" over the past 4 days). 

You'd think southern Johnston County had mountains the way the storms always get shredded / go into outflow mode when trying to move in from the south, or that Durham/Chapel Hill benefit from orthographic lift the way they're running 15"+ of ITB Raleigh this year so far.