PantherJustin

25 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

No shortage of precip on the HRRR

Woof better hope that’s Sleet or this thing is gonna blow 2002 out of the water in CLT Metro

Widespread 1/2-3/4” amounts verbatim N of Meck County 

HR33 1034 HP over N PA/SW NY Border LP over New Orleans 

NAM out to 27hr 1032HP over Erie PA SN/Mix over NLA/Mississippi/Arkansas 

2 minutes ago, WSNC said:

Not sure about other areas, but the HRRR has been pretty good in my area for ptype this year.  

Same, HRRR nailed the event 2 weeks ago so time will tell

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

For what it's worth the HRRR is heavy sleet for many 

As Hickory said earlier it makes more sense with The LP Track

7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

FRAM isn't a model, it's an algorithm that calculated true accrual of  ice. It tends to be much more conservative than just straight accumulation maps.This is why it's concerning, because it will account for the portion of the rain that's just runoff.

Ahhh dear lord Thats rough then

Just now, WXNewton said:

I think this might be the in house model that Brad P. uses.

I’ve wondered I’ve never seen the FRAM model 

EURO Running, Out to 24 1033HP over SE Ohio by Hr 36 on Hi-Res EURO HP shoots from SE Ohio- NE NY ....seems a bit odd

 RDPS put 1-1.5” FRZN in a Box Roughly Iredell-Wake and up to VA .... My goodness

Not that anyone Cares about RAP.... but at 21hrs (end of its Range) it does have the HP on IL/KY/IN (Evansville IN) border where GFS has it way over Columbus-Canton OH. That’s 300-350 Miles Further SW you’d have to think that may make a difference in a scenario like that down the line 

5 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

Looking at your house on the latest model run map and saying this isn’t going to be a serious event does everyone else a disservice.  This thread covers a lot of territory.  Some will get a cold rain.  Others could be without power for two or three days.  We have people reading this thread who don’t post, but would like get a sense of what might be coming.

Exactly. And the NAM may look warmer but it’s definitely not, if anything it brought heavier amounts further SE in CLT area. ANYONE along and NW of 85 Or a Line From Shelby-Concord-Lexington-NW Wake County Should prepare for an ice storm and Be pleasantly surprised if you end up not needed the extra supplies 

14 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

The triad begs to differ. Was 30-31 most of event and was pretty significant. 

Yea, I’d agree. 32 won’t get it done but 30/31 definitely 

Some things change, some yet still always stay the same lol all due to respect to Webber he’s obviously more experienced than I, but idk why Catawba/Iredell/Rowan/Davie wouldn’t be in the 1/4” game 

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

RDPS is still a big hit 

Dear lord. That thing is trying to just end all of Civilization. What is the record for recorded ice accrual in Nc?

Can Someone explain their best guess at what a “Futurecast” “In-House Model” is? Bc I’m Convinced it’s programmed to show nothing but rain no matter the setup? I heard it used to be RPM but now idk

50 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

FYP  

I’m bored man, I knew it was reaching. I quit my job with Norfolk Southern (bc it’s sucks and I wouldn’t recommend railroad jobs to anyone wasted 5yrs there)  Im a student a stay at home dad currently and literally was that bored 

Ik this may sound Dumb.... but assuming we’re (Charlotte Metro) pretty Same Longitude as Oklahoma City, Memphis, Little Rock , TX Panhandle should we just assume we’d be getting W/E OKC is getting? Highs around 5 and 7/8” of Snow? 

7 minutes ago, msuwx said:

Nice little 40-50 Mile Jog South although I think maybe just a bit flatter than a Trend idk

4 minutes ago, weatherlover said:

This will never verify south of 1-40

Of course 1.25” isn’t gonna verify anywhere Jmo. But why slicing it to 1/10-1/4” not verify based off that look?IF your Along and NW of 85

30 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Yeah it's just a climatology quirk. I will say though that I'm surprised that the outer regions haven't been bit by an ice storm in a while. The February 2014 storm featured a "super CAD" that gave my parents in Wilmington and others at that latitude a pretty legit ice storm; my neighbor's tree came down. Other 10 mile strips (like the 158 corridor on Saturday) have been nabbed by some 0.25-0.75 events in various transition zones. but there hasn't be a catastrophic 2002 redux that hits the "middle sections" hard in a while, and frankly I'm surprised those types of storms don't come more often since CAD can be so readymade. 

It’s crazy the thin line, I grew up In Concord Mills /Speedway area, seemed so much different even just in Kannapolis/Landis/China Grove then I moved to Hwy150/801 Mt Ulla area and that’s even different than those areas. All 10 mile or so increments ..... and I remember 2002 front end thump of 1-2” of snow then power was out for a week after it changed that night to ice 

14 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Yea, even if you slice that into 1/4th it’s .3-.5” 

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

About 20% of the time it is.  But, as ILMRoss mentioned above, it takes a specific set of variables to occur.

Nah I agree, it’s just crazy I feel like I’ve been hearing my entire life 29yrs old “Best Chance along and N of I-40” lmao 

Is it ever anywhere other than “Eastern Facing slopes and North of I-40” 

25 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

That’s 1-1.25” ICE mix for me lmao thats insanity