twister4999

2 minutes ago, nvck said:

hatched just shrunk a whole lot... more to the south now 

so hatched everything and no moderate 

I think they will upgrade on the next update. 

Lazy post here, but does anyone have the gif link to the NHC’s projected path through the entirety? It’s probably already been posted. TIA

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Overall I have a ton of respect for the NHC crew, my one nitpick revolves around the construction of the cone. It's only designed to capture 2/3 of the average track error over the last 5 years. As forecasts have improved the cone gets smaller. What it doesn't do is factor in situations where there is larger than normal forecast uncertainty. I would love to see a little more of that uncertainty factored into forecasts.

Totally agree. And like you, I have a large amount of respect for them. I hope my post didn’t come across as hating on them. Their forecast accuracy has improved remarkably over the last two decades. Having said that, I do believe I am correct with my critiques for this particular storm. I don’t see this as such a monumental victory of a forecast as I’m seeing from some on here or on social media. Just my two cents of course! 

35 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

It was, wish the modeling would have held. I think some people got a sense of security when the track supposedly shifted north into the big bend area. Unfortately thats just how it goes with forecasting.

Agreed. And perhaps an unpopular opinion, but I don’t believe this was some of their better work. Sure, some of their early forecasts were spot on, but after that there were major shifts. I guess I’m just not tooting their horn as much as others. Did the best they could of course, but yeah this wasn’t what I would call great forecast verification. Their forecasts probably lead to people being put in a rough spot after evacuating south from Tampa ultimately putting themselves in the strike zone. Apologies if this belongs in the banter thread. 

2 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

So I remember hearing that the HWRF and GFS pull from a lot of the same data when it comes to the track of storms, yet we have the HWRF showing an apocalyptic Tampa strike and the GFS is around Sarasota, why the difference?  The HWRF also has a significantly stronger storm, which also looks more realistic than what the GFS initialized at and is forecasting.

 

GFS is a global model and should be used more for track purposes vs strength. 

33 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

it's just the whole "oh my gorsh the car warsh" kind of experience

 

Just spewed beer laughing when I read that no lie lmao  

1 hour ago, zinski1990 said:

Cause it's not in Chicago. You all know it's true 

Nailed it. Chicago area or it didn’t happen lol  

To be honest, I feel like this subforum should have been renamed something relating to Chicago many years ago. 

SENC is on the verge of Kevin Martin troll status.