Cat Lady

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

this map is so confusing, especially with that annoying ad at the bottom that hides the color key.  So white actually means clear skies? It should be the reverse-- we normally associate white with clouds!  I thought Texas was in the clear and New York was mostly cloudy, but it looks like the opposite is true.

 

As of today the northeast is looking like the best bet for clear skies, but we have quite a ways to go with this forecast.

5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Still not looking great now for much of the path:

I'm trying not to worry until Monday :-|

Not seeing a general thread on the April 8th Eclipse yet, so I'm starting this one.  We're traveling (flying) to Austin, TX and looking at the current (LONG RANGE) forecast, it could be dicey.  Where are you headed? When do you plan to make the call for where you'll see the eclipse from?

Where & When (nasa.gov)

12/5/3

13 hours ago, raindancewx said:

'Dead August' v. 'Non-Dead-August' September activity doesn't quite pass a difference in proportion test at the 5% level.

Can't reject the notion that September has the same long-term activity following very low August activity. But it's really close. The p-value was 0.06, and you'd reject the "no difference from a dead idea" if it had been 0.05.

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Hurricane/hurr.atl.ace.data

1851-2019 ACE by month for anyone interested.

^This is a really nice analysis. I'm going to replicate it with Hurricane Days - I'm most curious about total activity, and don't want a Dorian like storm to blow up a September.

4 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

For as threatening as the GFS and the GEFS looks to be  they appear to be alone. Unless i am missing something  it I see little if any  support from from the Euro or the EPS, the CMC or the ICON.

I'm also trying to temper my expectations with this, but balancing it with the terrible Euro performance over the past 2 years when it comes to formation.  Basin conditions look good, and its unlikely that *nothing* will happen in the next 2 weeks.

20/9/3

20 minutes ago, JoshWeather said:

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/database/

Thanks! What a great resource!  I searched for snow / ice / freezing rain events that impacted wake county since 1990 (since I had to manually copy paste data) to get a frequency distribution of number of events that occur in any year.  While the average is just shy of 3 for that area, we are most likely to see far fewer or far more events than to see the average.  All that to say climatology would support the idea that the current set up has us on a snow train, similar to how we see groups of wave coming off the coast of Africa during peak hurricane season.  We're already above average, and I would expect us to have more events coming down the line just based on this event level frequency data.

Can anyone please share a source for climatology of # of snowfall events?  My NC memory says we either get nothing season, or a multi event season, but I'd like to confirm with data.  Could be state wide, or a bigger / smaller region.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs once again further south 

Still correcting southward

 

Dangerous to say "correcting" - its definitely adjusting, but it's wishcasting to say the southern bias is more accurate this far out. I'm definitely watching out for US landfalls.

16 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Interesting 12z HWRF run.  It shows it getting shredded by Hispanolia but then regenerates near the Bahamas and still hits Miami-Dade at 982 mb.  Any way that's possible?

Possible - yes!  Likely? We'll see.  Given the storm is going to get shredded and *potentially* re-form, I'm not giving much confidence to the HWRF model.  We'll see what they say if the storm actually reorganizes.

18/9/3

Does anyone have any knowledge on how long we've been naming sub tropical systems? I assume it correlates with the satellite era, but I'm wondering if there are any other specifics.

NHC admits their intensity forecast is high as of 11am. My best guess is to fight public hurricane fatigue, but is there a meteorological reason that I'm missing?