Richie

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The past is not predictive, but I recall him doing quite well with projecting Ian's intensity. 

There's an overall hyperbolic flair with him, but there's probably some potential upside on intensity compared to the official forecast.

I think it's beyond "hyperbolic flair" when you say that a category 3 is "quite likely" and "might even track as far south as Miami." As of the 1 PM intermediary update, Dade has been removed from even a tropical storm watch.

6 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Two things I am watching with this storm:

1) The structure is already such that it seems to be on the cusp of Hurricane intensity.  I am wondering if intensity wise models are busting low

2) The motions of such storms under strong High pressure systems tend to trend more south than modeled (Ike, Andrew, Katrina, etc). 

If i were to make a call based on the state of the storm now and the two thoughts above:  I say just north of Miami for landfall with Category 2 intensity.

By just north of Miami you mean 75 miles to the north in Palm Beach County? Because neither Dade nor are Broward are in the cone.