rickymortyx

borderline heavy snow now. my patience is paying off

moderate snow, really starting to come down good now

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not convinced the heaviest totals will be north & west of NYC.

Very cold/dry over there and temps have been very cold down to C/NJ. Euro/GFS are further south with jackpot zone.

So I have an inkling jackpot will be near or just south of I-78. I'm also basing this off the current overrunning snows which are targeting C/NJ.

heaviest snow will be where the pivot occurs. if it moves past the city by the time it decides to pivot N & W will JP,  ala 2017/2020 style. hard to determine where the pivot will settle

54 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Shame of it is, we're always told the best rates are just north of that line.  Too bad there's nearly nothing north of the line.

 it is moving north

it is snowing out there

7 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Euro is still showing around 6-8. Are people really gonna complain about that? 

if u look at the radar u can see the nice bands coming in. we just need patience

nice bands about to move into the area in about 30 mins - 1 hour. 

should be snowing by the time we wake up

22 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Looks to be over for Indy. 

rain?

3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

That pretty orange stuff going to make it's way north?  Or stall out where it is?

that must be the mix line.

22 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Someone gets fooked. Usually that's DC...

it was the philly area back in '15.  I remember that one well back in my days in philly so can't be too certain that it is only DC. these things always trend NE last minute, hopefully this one is different for the philly metro this time.

is that incoming precip for indy a mix or snow??

wow HRRR has 10-18". we'll see if it caves

how we looking folks?

Just now, KPITSnow said:

Have to think this bodes well for us.

looks good to me

Just now, qg_omega said:

none of those are even close to the 40 inches NWS BGM has received, even using Kucera.

3k NAM looks closest to verifying, and also the GFS-Parallel run from a few days ago

8 minutes ago, Rittenhouse said:

I don't think Central Park ever reported sleet. The totals were kept down in the NYC metro due to dry slotting, not mixing. The best bands set up to the north and west of the area.

This was clearly shown by the NAM before the storm.

 

it sleeted for a few hours just west of the city. there was not a mention of sleet in the forecast, definitely hindered the snow results

2 hours ago, eduggs said:

Looks like most of Morris County NJ was spared major snowfall.  Some drifts here and there but it's not very deep.  There was high impact to yesterday's evening commute, but nothing significant after about 3 hours of moderate to heavy snow.

This seems like the kind of storm that would have been pretty well forecast locally in the years before model data overload. It was apparent that the mid and upper level synoptics were not ideal for snow as recently as Tuesday. Snowmap overload also doesn't help.

that last inch that we got overnight really saved us would have been a bust

On 12/16/2020 at 9:43 AM, Dark Star said:

Not too bullish, haven't seen significant pressure falls along Hatteras yet.  I would say 6-8" in central Union County NJ, unless the coastal low gets going FAST.

good call sir measured 6.8" this morning in Union surprised to see Newark almost got a foot must be their year

still sleeting this is ridiculous

9 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Few and far between the last decade?

I count 15, and this one will make 16 since 2010. That's not bad for any major city. I think I even missed a few.

majority of those are from 2010-2015

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Where are you ?

i am in Berk Heights the sleet started around since 10

there is not even 6 inches outside and we were predicted 12-18" maybe all the snow from state college comes our way

Just now, rickymortyx said:

not sure what is going on but it has been sleeting the past few hours there was not one mention of sleet in the forecast. smells like a bust to me

and the weather service has some explaining to do tomorrow AM when peopel wake up

not sure what is going on but it has been sleeting the past few hours there was not one mention of sleet in the forecast. smells like a bust to me