adiabatic14

19 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Stop using the RIMM plots, they are garbage. The MJO does not circle back, the wave is moving off.

 

 

From God's lips to Peanut Butter-99's fingertips will make it so!! Seriously though, you ignore Don's concerns to your peril. Consider it a lesson in model analysis.

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

i don't think anyone has any level of confidence that it's going to snow or not with this one.

I actually have 100% confidence that I will see a snowflake (during this "event"); and as a Manhattanite, 100% confidence that said snowflake will be in the air and NOT on the ground...I give a car or tree about even odds.

19 hours ago, bdgwx said:

That's pretty typical. Regional trends often do not align with global trends. Another example...Siberia cooled even more than the upper great plains in the CONUS during this same period. Yet...the planet is warmer overall now than in the previous decade. I asked the question above...is this a result of a systematic shift via WACKy, quasi resonant amplification of the polar jet, or something else? Or is it just another chaotic artifact that will disappear in the following decade? Lots of questions...

Most likely chaotic artifact, it's repetitive in the same way a whirlpool that follows an oar dip is repetitive in nature but chaotic in origin, the human temporal scale is so granular that momentary idiosyncracies are often mistaken for meaningful patterns...which of course begs the question: what events are meaningful in a climate change context? well, I'd personally answer that with "we simply do not have enough knowledge to answer that"...there are obvious candidates: die off blue-green algae, expansion of Gobi to all of central China, death of Gulf Stream and resultant "siberification" of Europe, but for all of the threats we can name, I'm betting the one that writes the history of our species will be one that we aren't able to foresee

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ten hours. 

Super massive stars that begin fusing Hydrogen into Helium during their early lives, will burn so hot and furiously through their Hydrogen mass that within just a few million years they will begin fusing the Helium they have created, into heavier elements.  This goes onward, each cycle faster than the predecessor, because the energy produced by fusion of these increasingly heavier elements adds more and more energy to the nucleosynthesis process, thus speeding it up.  Once the star begins fusing Oxygen into Iron ...that's the end of the line. 

BOOM. 

That fusion into Iron at the core is the end of the line because it takes more energy than is provisionally in place left over from the previous nucleosynthesis processes to fuse Iron into heavier elements such Gold ..etc.  The star no longer is producing additional energy thus begins to lose thermal pressure, and can no longer withstand its own incredible gravity. The core collapses... When that collapsing mass hits the neutron density being created by compressing protons and electrons together ( the creating of a neutron star associated with ~ 8 solar mass stars or > ), it rebounds in a horrific explosion called a Super Nova. 

Here is the fascinating part.  Because the star is so large, that process of core implosion to 'Nova, takes time - on the order of ten hours.  In that time, the outside observer sees the star as burning normally.  It's really quite literally as though the outside spherical envelope of the star its self, is a dead man walking.  A corpse unaware... that it's heart beat has ceased, and has no idea about the the shock wave about to annihilate from below.  

When I read articles like this:  https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/13/europe/insect-apocalypse-report-scn/index.html

I am driven to the above primer; where humanity, and perhaps a lot of other species to go along with, may be living and breathing, and carrying on in their existence as though quite metaphoric with that above theme, having no idea ( or in our case, vaguely..).  

There are so many moving parts to the climate change catastrophe, and it is absolutely a catastrophe.  So few are aware, or could even begin to conceptualize the immense inter dependencies of the entire biological system.  We read about polar bear habitats.  Sea level rises.. Droughts and heat waves.  And we think we got it?  As commoners, we don't even know the 1% of it.  As scholars and scientists, we don't know the half.  But as we burn and carry on in our ways and means as a species, we may be existing through our ten hours. 

And I've been thinking more and more about what you wrote a while back regarding Gaia maybe keeping NOTAM cooler relative to global temps in order to ensure that humans take no action in their last ten hours that could potentially mitigate the worst outcome (not that we have too many options at this point even if every one of us awakens NOW to imminent danger). If IMBY weenies with a hobbyist's literacy in the sciences cannot comprehend how record setting cold Oct-Nov temps over the contiguous 48 could be strongly correlated with a warming planet, then there's no chance that the average Joe in Lubbock can be convinced his frostbite is caused by global warming. Maybe I'm just an old cynic, but that's my take on the eve of 2020.

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the wet look there angers me....lol. That would drive me nuts. Vail and some of the other Colorado resorts have them too and I get irrationally angry when I see pic of them.

You're not alone in this sentiment, I used to travel in Japan pretty extensively during the winter and experienced some ludicrous snow-rates and packs, but ALL of the roads (that remain open) are heated so it never looked like winter to me, even when houses had snow to their eves and everyone was topside shoveling like the dickens to keep their roof from collapsing. The "conquest" of nature, in general, hollows me out a little, prys some thing out of my soul.

49 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What I really, really want to do and have been wanting to do for nearly the past decade is take the daily values of the NAO, AO, PNA (and whatever other indices daily values are available for) and create like a weekly or bi-weekly dataset. I know looking at height fields is the way to go, but the raw numbers do provide some value...one of the values is you can quickly see transitions then view that period visually. Doing so though is not as easy as just adding up two weeks of values and dividing by 14. I'm thinking of emailing someone at CPC for perhaps some input. 

Anyways with the seasonal forecasting discussion, I don't think it gets the respect it deserves. In reality, seasonal forecasting can be more accurate than forecasting 3-days out. Utilizing all the data available, understanding climo, and how the atmosphere sorta of works can provide tremendous insight into how the atmosphere may evolve moving forward...and there is tremendous success in doing so. Only issue is when someone forecasts a "great" pattern 7-weeks out and that pattern doesn't produce snow it's called a bust...even though the pattern verified. It's one thing to forecast patterns, but that pattern producing is dependent on numerous other factors which aren't necessarily tied into the overall pattern. 

Yes, seasonal snow forecasts still involve a lot of "dart tossing," as the set of variables that produce a particular snowfall in any single geographic location are simply so many and so spaced out temporally that we're not even sure we know what they all are, never mind whether we're accurately capturing and weighting them in our forecast processes. Weenies don't much like that disclaimer however.