JB_Wchstr

Just now, LibertyBell said:

that's not that different from what I have for Long Island, I think they're a little excessive on NYC though, if Central Park gets half an inch consider that lucky.

 

It’s really something that we’ve had to hope, pray and cast spells to finally get to a wet noodle as the grand finale to this poor excuse for a winter.  I know that belongs in banter but I don’t care 

39 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Just posted this elsewhere as a reality check, but damn if this verifies or even close to it, it makes our winter, given what we've gotten so far.  The modeling gods wouldn't take this away from us now, would they?  :>)

This is not a forecast - it's just one model run, but it's a doozy...

We've officially been NAM-ed, as the 12Z NAM which just came out shows the potential of this highly complex, very powerful nor'easter. This snowfall map is crazy and the snow falls after almost everyone gets an inch of rain on Monday (the transition to snow is by about 1-3 am Tuesday for most and is over by late Tuesday night). This kind of possibility is why so many have been following this so closely. We could still mostly whiff and get mostly rain for CNJ/NENJ/NYC and even much of NNJ/EPA, but this model run shows what is possible in this kind of explosive setup. Also, we're not 5 days out, we're 24-30 hours from the start of the event late Monday morning. Reminds me of the NAM for Jan 2016's blizzard, where it was the first model to sniff out the huge potential (about 48 hrs before the event, iirc). Stay tuned folks.

 

NAM

almost always overdoes qpf and generally sucks otherwise.  

1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

I am disbelieving

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Very odd run with the wrap-around snow for NYC Metro delayed 12-24 hours from previous runs and other snowy models...look when NJ gets its snow, when the low is near ME!

 

Models are struggling with this - err on the side of less impressive when that happens 

40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But still has the extreme rainfall into California, which is why this year broke records from 1982-83.

But isn't a la nina supposed to be dry in California?  I remember previous la nina years were so dry in California that they had forest fires.....in winter!

There are no rules anymore.  I think the biggest problem we have with forecasting now is assuming that a+b = c because it always did as long as we’ve been measuring, until now that climate change is messing up all the relationships. 

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

NWS Upton is not buying any snow for Saturday. They are calling for rain even up here in Rockland County. No cold air

Sounds right.  People are letting their (understandable) desperation cloud their judgment.  

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I just mean in general when dealing with a bad winter.  In a good winter borderline patterns work out better than they do in a bad winter.

When the whole winter keeps screaming “I WON’T! I WON’T! I WON’T!”, Don’t believe “I MIGHT”. 

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Heaviest snow of the winter lol 

High praise

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

an inch of snow is fine, no need to get greedy, as long as it doesn't change to rain until the very end, I'm happy

 

That’s how bad things are lol

14 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I want the royalties! 

When nothing comes in December: What do you want? It’s not even Winter yet. 
When nothing comes in January: Well, you know, the January thaw.    
When nothing comes in February: Be patient, the pattern is reloading!
When nothing comes in March: What do you expect, it’s almost Spring!
 

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I mean this always had a risk of cutting per below older runs.

Recent runs gave us a head fake.

Like Forky stated after Christmas.

And what has changed in the pattern depicted in the ensembles?

Once a cutter, always a cutter. Even one warm run usually tells the story. This far out you want a whiff, and then it works its way west. 

5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

we'll probably still see jumps through the 6z runs

Are you expecting the models to lose the double-barrel stuff?

All of a sudden there’s two lows. What BS lol.  

As an aside, has any storm-specific thread ever gotten 300 pages, because this one is about to. 

4 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

This is how you get an STD.

Gotta use the NAM safely! 

11 minutes ago, Hoth said:

If only this wasn't the NAM.

Better the NAM than nobody lol

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What bias? It corrected towards a solution that most feel makes sense, which is also supported by the best guidance.

Some people get bent out of shape when the model run doesn’t show them taking the whole game lol. 

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

I remember Don Kent saying the morning of the '78 Blizzard that all was contingent on the upper level trough merging with the southern system.  This was just hours before the wall of snow came in.  Things were a lot different back then with the lack of technology.

Unlike today when we’re still arguing and head scratching up to the first flake lol. 

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

How did people live before model snowfall maps

A lot better than they do now lol. 

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

big jump west now big jump east.  this winter is fascinating.

That’s a nice way to say it

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Why does everyone post Kuchera for maximum weenie effect?

For maximum weenie effect lol.  

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Twice. 
Twice 

It bears repeating. 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t get to put own stuff in it? You can put sugar in it and tell them how many pumps of almond milk, cream etc . Dunks is much less costly than SB

What is a pump of almond milk? They put in what they want and you need to live with it lol.  

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Anyone that thinks Starbucks is good or better than Dunks has some serious problems. It is overpriced burnt diarrhea in a cup 

And DD is almost as expensive, is weak, inconsistent sauce, and you don’t get to put in your own stuff to get it how you want it.  

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro blew this Saturday event laughably bad, but it’ll nail the day 9 cutter to Albany 

You know it.