wxbeaz

January 30, 2021

15 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Primary is in southern Missouri and appears to be moving due east with not much latitude gain.

Edit: Almost due east. It can't be due east with not much latitude gain.

Just wondering if you could share the link to where one might view this radar composite? Thanks if it’s publicly available.

December 15, 2020

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Death by a thousand paper cuts. The high has trended SLIGHTLY NE of where it was days ago. The confluence in the NE weakened some. The 50/50 moves out slightly faster...and the storm slowed down 6-12 hours...increasing the spacing between the two and allowing for more ridging in front of it. I was always bothered by how far west the upper level trough was going neutral and starting to lift, we needed all those other things to offset and they went the wrong way. Some problems that I think the globals had a hard time seeing at range...that are now coming into focus (NAM saw it from jump) was the without a closed off mid and upper level circulation (ERS talked about this) there is nothing to stop the easterly flow north of the low from blasting way NW. Add in all the warm water and that is shifting the boundary west...and the low track right with it. I don't think there is any one thing to point to that did this...it was a lot of things that all went the wrong way...and that was partly why this was a slow bleed and not a sudden shift. No one factor suddenly got a LOT worse...they all just degraded along the margins a little. IMO what hurt us most was just a little too much spacing between the 50/50 combined with the trough digging in a little too far west then lifting instead of amplifying along the east coast. The other factors like warm water and less confluence and shallow cold could have overcome that if they had all trended perfectly...but the warts in the overall synoptic setup required a lot else to go perfect...for a time it seemed like they all would.

you're analysis is always impeccable. are you saying this is a fail?

February 25, 2019

11 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Now I will show you why your wrong about that epo look being a problem. It's not the most perfect pattern I would pick if I could draw up the best way to get snow. Centering the blocking on the NAO side would be better...but that look has worked before. It has failed sometimes also...but we can fail in even the most perfect west based NAO block also...not every good pattern ends up with snow on the ground.

Here are some examples of similar patterns that did work. A few BIG storms...and then some more typical but good ones. No 2 looks are every exactly the same but these are all pretty close.

Probably the best example of March cold and snow came from a very similar look this the one coming up.

1960

Obviously 1993 is another example that lead to a monster storm

February 2006 a similarly centered EPO ridge worked with with a pretty good storm

And there were a couple other years where this type of pattern simply lead to a decent snowfall... 2 moderate snows early in 1996 that amounted to 7.5" in Baltimore, and one 5" storm in 1978.

Finally... you said this look is not good to get a trough in the east... again what are you talking about. Right now ALL the guidance is dumping a pretty darn cold trough into the east next week. The bigger issue looks to be suppression right now. I am not sure if NC ends up with a snowstorm that you can say the problem was "no trough in the east". Maybe this progression with change and turn into a massive fail but right now EVERYTHING indicates its going to be pretty cold day 8-14. Maybe we get snow out of it...maybe not...but the epo isn't the problem.