KeganR

VBV effecting the storms in SW OK?

23 minutes ago, KeganR said:

Temps already two-four degrees higher than the CAMs suggested here in Central OK. Sunshine everywhere.

Should have no problem busting the cap today. Just depends on when and where.

Want to head south of Chickasha and wait it out.

As I say this, we now have full cloud cover in Central OK.

Temps already two-four degrees higher than the CAMs suggested here in Central OK. Sunshine everywhere.

Should have no problem busting the cap today. Just depends on when and where.

Want to head south of Chickasha and wait it out.

3 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Core aloft with the storm approaching Binger has been coming down a bit over the last ten minutes. The Fort Cobb mesonet, about 8 miles south of the storm, has north winds. I don't believe the storm is entirely surface-based. It is after 1 AM here after all. Of course, I thought the same thing early Tuesday morning and ended up with a tornado four miles to my northeast, so we'll see. 

EDIT: aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand OUN just added the 'TOR Possible' tag back again. See? I'm on a roll this week. 

Trying to figure out southern, southwest and central Oklahoma this year has been a mess

Storm on I-40 really getting its act together now.

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Would be surprised if the cell on I40 in Oklahoma isn’t tornadic soon 

You would think...

Merged with the sister cell, re-intensified and now has an evident inflow notch.

I can’t figure this cell out west of Oklahoma City.

Looked like it was going to get eaten up by shear like the rest of the storms I chased today, then it looked like it was starting to weaken, then a cell merger and now it re-intensifies with wings starting to show.

3 minutes ago, Misstertwister said:

More incredible than Monday’s? I know that didn’t yield what was forecasted but it was talked about several days out

As Marsh said today in his Twitter thread, Monday’s environment was the 1% of 1%s. The research on why it busted will be really fun to see play out. 

We won’t know much until the sounding tomorrow morning in Norman, but the environment is primed. Just need some more factors to come together.

Tomorrow’s environment is incredible.

Data in the morning sounding is going to be extremely telling.

I appreciate all the information provided in here, y’all.

Anxious times here in Oklahoma. I think everyone here has been warned and is prepared. 

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

This is the danger of going high risk before the midday update on day 1.  Really worried this busts now because everyone is expecting a big day and you'll look like a fool if this doesnt pan out.  Ironically this flooding threat in Oklahoma is just as big but it's getting almost no coverage.

News stations here are talking about it equally as much as the tornado threat

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Focusing on individual placement of cells on meso models will drive you crazy.

Absolutely... 

Not chasing. Just getting worried here in the 405.

New here...

But 09z HRRR run has a supercell going through downtown OKC area at 21z and then another at 01z.

This is not good.