juliacarolecat

Had to call the cat in before the storms get here on the eastern shore. Can’t imagine the poor thing stuck out there in all this hail!

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Starting to hear some thunder and wind is picking up. Looks like the Baltimore cell is going to pass slightly below us.

The thinking is more linear as it moves eastward towards the coast, and reading the discussion from Mount Holly they think the most likely place for a tornado is in Cecil over into Newcastle in DE up into SE PA. Possibly some interaction with the warm front lying across that area, backing the flow some is my guess. Bigger overall  threat will be damaging straight line winds, with fairly strong winds aloft and decent Dcape. Bowing segments generally produce straight line winds but can also produce tornadoes as vorticity sometimes develops on the north/south end of the line. How far north are you?

not a silly question! welcome!
yeah, the tornado threat is for any discrete cells that may pop up, and/or tornadoes that may spin up in a QLCS (quasi-liner convection system) aka bowing lines
Wind seems to be the biggest threat today, hence the 30% from SPC. But can't rule out a tornado.

Sorry for a silly question, I’m new to posting but a lurker for years.

Is the tornado threat for north/central Maryland and then it will switch to more of a wind threat as it becomes more linear moving East? Ik bowing line segments can produce tornadoes but always thought they were more associated with high winds.

Kept 10% tornado too


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Any predictions for the 1230 spc update?


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Columbus, OH now included in the Enhanced region for the latest Day 2 outlook.

Will be interesting to see if the initial convention will clear away fast enough for substantial destabilization in the afternoon.