dj88

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Hope yall enjoyed the weekend snow.  Left cabin w/ about 4-5" on top and snowing mid morning yesterday.  Nice to see winter back (albeit briefly).

Elysburg to 901 exit of 81 appeared to be the winners (eyeballing mind you).  Saw some sled tracks in fields on way home (and going into office this am).  

I was a touch heavy on Lanco accums but saw enough pics on soc media to know that it did snow.  I dont really care if I was off for MYB but sounds like it did pretty well in the Altoona/Poc axis.  Good for them.  

Enjoy the gullywasher this week and hopefully we'll be back in the game soon as tellies dont look great beyond next couple weeks.

 

I think maybe elevation played into it somewhat? I live right in Elysburg and we never had more than 2 inches on the ground before changing to rain. But I think the top of Natalie had 5. My parents in Danville also had 5. Seems Elysburg proper is always warmer?

Just changed to rain. Currently sitting at 2 inches. 

Snowing lightly finally in Elysburg 

Just starting in Elysburg still at 32

Currently sitting at 32 up from 30 at 8. No precip yet. 

Wind just picked up like crazy here and is changing over to snow temp is 36 down 5 degrees in the last 15 minutes 

Ended with 3 inches on the dot at the changeover.

Snowing here just a dusting at the moment. Hoping to atleast get an inch on the flip side for a white Christmas.

14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Each "model site" has algorithms, often different, they use to compute snow.  Tropical Tidbits computes sleet and snow on the same panel as you have probably read so their maps are often over inflated for snow fall totals vs. being under like you pointed out.  But I see what you are talking about in this case, and it is a bit strange as the presentation on the Tropical Tidbits precip maps would suggest more than 3" of snow would fall in your location.

Anyway, here is how Pivotal computes including the comments that it uses snow fallen.... not necessarily snow that will accumulate so that may be one clue to the difference.   They are discussing something similar in the MA thread and speed of the front among other things was mentioned as a possible explanation for inconsistent snow maps this run. 

 

https://home.pivotalweather.com/guides/snowfall

 

1. Our snowfall products generally attempt to forecast the snow that falls to the surface; not necessarily the snow pile you see on the grass, interstate, your rooftop, or anywhere else after a long storm. There are some caveats with Kuchera (penalizes warm temperatures in part to account for on-ground melting) and accumulated positive depth change (explicitly accounts for melting, albeit with model data file frequency as a confounding factor) — but none of these products will consistently provide an accurate forecast of final ruler-measured snow depth, even if the model’s QPF and vertical profile are spot on!

Thanks for the explanation!

So I admit I am not an expert at reading models but I have learned a lot from all of you over the years but I have what is probably a dumb question lol. I only ever look at tropical tidbits so today I decided to look at Pivotal. Here's the dumb question. Same 12Z GFS run same frame 00Z on the 25th tropical shows 3 inches for my location and Pivotal shows 6 both on the 10:1 ratio. Why lol?

Starting to change over to snow 

Sitting at 33 now sleet/rain. The grass is pretty much green. Hoping next week delivers for a white Christmas.

Elysburg is sitting at 33 just a cold rain. Had maybe .25 inches of sleet on the ground around 8 but that is almost gone. Looking up at the mountain it doesn't appear to be getting white either.

3 inches and heavy snow here

First flakes falling in Elysburg

Just went to an ice storm warning as well. Is a half inch of freezing rain realistic?

Just stopped in Elysburg.. 49 hours of continuous snow!

Picked up an another 1.5 over night brings me to 18.5. still snowing lightly

14.5 in Elysburg

Hit a foot in Elysburg

Up to 10 in Elysburg

5.5 inches so far on the ground in Elysburg.  Parents in Danville measured 8 so far.

First flakes in Elysburg

looks like 13-14 inches in Elysburg.  Sleet didn't help.  Should be enough to get a white Christmas! 

Sleet mixing in Elysburg