Whitecheddar

4 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I'm not so confident this is going to continue for another few weeks. I think we've got this week and first half of next week for a ripe setup. Heard things like the AO, NAO, and PNA are headed in rough directions after that. Also with days getting longer, sun angle, yada yada. Hopefully we all cash in with one of these next couple events. 

I def agree with you but at the same time we have seen the pattern in the 14 day frame show a change coming only to recharge the whole pattern as it gets closer just another example of the models making its best guess and us thinking oh no we only have this 7 day window to cash in but it turns out the recharge makes it an even more favorable condition for us. Like compare now to 2 weeks ago.. We finally have at least a little cold air in the mix. Who knows 14 days from now the block might position itself perfectly and we get that monster Miller A from the gulf. I guess that's what makes this all our hobby. The unknown is real.

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is all because we are pushing for a level of detail at ranges that NWP is not capable of giving yet.  It is getting MUCH better.  Day 5 forecasts are more accurate then day 3 was not that long ago.  But when I first started doing this no one took day 5 or even day 3 seriously in terms of gleaning very meso scale specific details.  Trying to nail the exact rain snow line to within 20 miles, or the exact location of the northern fringe of precip with a synoptic wave.  But now we start trying to do that at day 5 or even longer range.  That is crazy and while the guidance has gotten better, not at the same rate as our ridiculous expectations.  

Well said  especially in setups like this one that only happens a few times in a decade. Puts even more uncertainty in that 5 day window because the models are just supercomputers with what has happened in the past making that best guess for the future. But when we aren't in that simple pattern any one variable can push a jackpot Miller A hybrid at 0z to a suppressed shortwave down in Georgia the next. And us weenies feed off of the digital snow but we really need to just stay positive follow the trends and hope for a little luck. Just my opinion of course. 

To be honest.. after watching everyone of the models.. run after run.. day after day with all the adjustments that happen after each run. You could drop a pin on any model and that outcome would have the same chance of being right as the one beside it. All these waves so close together just seems model dont know how to handle them in our current setup. But im a betting man and as long as this can continue for another few weeks I'd put my money on everyone in here getting hit at least once eventually.  Just the sooner the better to calm the nerves of some. 

29 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Ha

 

Looks like my kids got into the highlighters lol

Very sharp cutoffs

30 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Its been 72 hours.

72 hrs yes also 4 days of snow falling from the sky. Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. 

Well i thought it was over yesterday.

Woke up for work and outside everything is covered once again.. very light snow falling. Radar has a band that goes from a few hundred miles into Canada all the way down to almost Richmond.  Really pretty amazing 4 straight days of snow falling here.  Can't remember a time I can say that.

Will have to get a more official total when I get home from work.. this 12 inch ruler isn't cutting it. But I will say about 18-20 inches. 

Light snow falling still but looks like heavy band finally moving out. 

Located 2 miles south of hagerstown Airport

Upgrading my moderate snow to heavy.. with big flakes as well added about an inch the past 2 hrs. 

7 total from the start.

28 degrees 

2 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Freezing rain in frederick...

Your close my friend.. just over the mountain snow

Moderate snow 

visibility about 1/4 mile

about 2 miles north of 81 and 70 divide

26 deg

light snow right now got the roads covered again

6.5

I'm about a mile south of hagerstown airport

I rarely chime in but feel like I need to get this one off my chest.. this is to the few barking that models suck.. blah blah blah

U might need to look at urself for a moment. You saw one model with a 0z output of 932 (exaggerating) snowicaine bombogenesis cyclone off the coast at 7 days out.  You canceled ur weekend plans went out and bought salt and raided the grocery store for milk and bread because you set ur expectation at 20 inches.

The fail was on you.. I won't throw names on hear but they have said it time and time again.. the point of these models and all the data is to look for trends look at what's going right for your area and whats going wrong for your area. And then you make a logical decision of what your weather might be like that many days out.  

Did anyone see nws or weather Channel or any weather app put snow in the forecast 7 days away 90% chance 8-10 accumulation? No.. why?? Cause the people that know what they are doing know that setting your expectation at 20 inches 7 days out would get you a first class ticket to the unemployment line. 

If your feelings are truly hurt right now then your doing this hobby all wrong. Models don't suck, (Let's keep the NAM out of this lol) its the people that don't know how to read the data correctly that suck.

And on a side note im not talking about a good majority of posters on here.. we all have fun and love to see the bombs 7 days out but we live in reality where.. well a whole hell of a lot can change in 7 days.

so my question is.. what do we want the first storm on the 25th to do to make the 2nd wave more likely give us a direct hit? cause if i have to give up frozen on mon/tue to get shaalacked by the second storm.. then im willing to make that sacrifice to the weather weenie gods.

Nws has day 7 threat. 

Anybody care to share what moisture qpfs we talking...