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Posts posted by Crowbar
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43 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:
Here it comes already and this is just slow moving round one.
Yep - I'm in the county north of Columbus. I don't see severe happening here, but ILN still saying that there's a chance. If it appears that they'll get severe, then I'll go home and work from there. Easier to work at the office, but would rather have the car in the garage and a basement if necessary
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3 hours ago, Floydbuster said:
I'm surprised they went with such a high risk. There could be alot of rainfall throughout the day Thursday helping to lower instability in the region, similar to last week. Thankfully, this is much less threatening than last week, however, the focus will be more on flooding rainfall threats.
The NWS says the severe risk is highly dependent on lingering rain and clouds through the day. I think this has a high bust potential.
Agree - heard a local met on the radio talking about how it may clear out enough to fire up the storms, and that's what they said last week. Don't see that happening with the amount of rain we're supposed to get.
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3 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:
Well other than the early Monday morning HRRR and NAM nightmares showing a possible big outbreak *perhaps* getting to Central Ohio, there was always the likelihood that it would be worse down near the Ohio River and Kentucky.
When the moderate risk was held over that area, there was a massive social media twitter meltdown among the amateur storm chaser nerds. They were attacking some forecaster named Broyles or something and going nuts. Then you had the long discussions and a tardy issuance of the moderate risk Mon afternoon smack dab over Central Ohio, way too far north without more model run indicators. By Monday evening, it was obvious that should be moved southwest, which it eventually was.
I know this seems unlikely, but is there a chance that the moderate risk was issued out of pressure from the social media freakout and the overperformance of the March Western Ohio tornado event?
Certainly hope it was more due to the overperformance from a couple weeks ago, as it's a pretty sad state of affairs if they caved to pressure from social media. I was wondering why we stayed in a moderate risk after all of the rain that we had overnight and this morning, then the one early this afternoon. The TV mets who were on the radio were still saying that we were in a moderate risk this afternoon, but the sun wasn't out that long today for any destabilizing to occur. Totally understand that it's not an exact science, but never saw where the necessary factors would be in play up here.
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2 minutes ago, buckeye said:
Yep, it held
Yep - as I said above, when I got the call that school was letting out early, knew that it was game over. Certainly don't fault the school district with all of the hype, as there was some chatter about a Xenia-like event.
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6 minutes ago, buckeye said:
yea, it was frustrating. When we got that clearing around 11:30 I thought it's game on. Then that garbage rolled in around 2 and I think that was the nail in the coffin.
One cool thing, the sky has been a show this evening. Strange cloud formations, colors, and the most amazing rainbow I've ever seen. I'll upload a pic when I get a chance.
You'd think that could have been predicted - everyone was saying that the morning convection would suck out the energy, but NWS continued to say that the paramaters were in place for a major severe event. Realize that some are getting severe weather, but up this way it was a lot worse last night and this monring. Should have known it would be a bust up here when they let school out 90 minutes early.
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28 minutes ago, buckeye said:
I was thinking the same thing. Usually you see adjustments 25 or 50 miles this way or that way.... but that change is like an entirely different forecast.
So I'll have to see if my anecdotal theory holds. I've always said the most hyped events around here tend to fall apart while the most significant events, (ie the one a couple weeks back) come out of nowhere.
Tend to agree. I recall last year in March, there was similar chatter the day before, and it turned out all we had was a steady rain, or the Jan 2019 "foot of snow" that ended up a few inches.
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19 minutes ago, NEOH said:
Tough model trends for those of us in Ohio. Everyone's favorite met LC thinks this goes south and east...
There are two influencing factors that most of the numerical forecast models are missing. That would be the strong Baffin Island ridging and the energy-laden subtropical jet stream. The lower latitude feature is a boundary that a developing low pressure could realign with. And the Rex signature that is drifting westward from the mouth of the Davis Strait blocks the "into Quebec" route that predictive guidance is suggesting. Plain and simple, it makes sense to go with the scheme that shows a farther south and east track.
Forgive my ignorance, but this means an Apps runner? Even I know that means heavy snow here.
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Still way too far out, but would love a nice Christmas Eve blizzard if for nothing else it will keep my wife’s idiot sister from coming up to visit that day.
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1 hour ago, osubrett2 said:
6.8" on 2/21/2015 was the last 6"+ event (including 2 day totals) for CMH.
Franklin County/CMH has only been under 1 Winter Storm Warning since the winter of 2014-15 and that event (1/19-1-20/2019) busted big.
No kidding on the one from last January - hyped as a mega-storm by local media so much that schools canceled all events and ended up an all-day rain with some snow overnight.
Not getting excited about this one - stranger things have happened.
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Sleeting pretty good in LC
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Honestly, I'd just as soon get nothing and have this go down as one of the biggest busts that I've seen.
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Sleet in Lewis Center - if nothing else it's been a steady stream of precipitation (except for snow) all day.
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2 minutes ago, buckeye said:
Lots of 'weatherman' slamm'n going on .... poor guys ...they better hope this deform band works out
No kidding - I have my wife barking that they don't know what they're talking about (neither does she most of the time but she still feels the need to let me know her uneducated opinion).
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Appears quiet at the moment in LC
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5 minutes ago, buckeye said:
probably best at this point to turn off the models and start looking at actual obs and radar. Speaking of which, we have a lot of steady precip coming in from the southwest, will be interesting to see what it ends up being
Agree - not putting much stock in models
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Upstairs with the kids and hear the sleet hitting the window. Was out about 30-45 min ago and it was plain old rain at that time.
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5 minutes ago, buckeye said:
Latest HRRR drives low right inot W PA giving about the eastern 3/4ths plain rain.... talk about a bust if that happens
This reminds me of the Saturday from I think 2005 - didn't have the ability to work from home so went to the office with a Winter Storm Warning calling for 8-12". Got to the office early, worked for several hours, then looked outside and saw nothing. Logged into the NWS site and saw the WSW was downgraded to a WWA. Went back to my desk for a few hours, looked out again, and still nothing. Went back to NWS site and they removed the WWA. That was a total bust.
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Just now, buckeye said:
hey, even the greatest of all time, blizzard of '78, started as an all day rain storm
Yep - I was 10, living in the Akron/Cleveland area. I recall them calling off school which I couldn't figure out as it was around 50 and raining. All I recall after that is being off school for a week.
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Have to believe that the school districts that canceled today's events are ticked - our district sent out a text blast yesterday afternoon canceling all events.
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My wife says the naysayers are out on FB, saying ILN dropped the ball. I don't see what they could done as the models were calling for up to a foot or more when I went to bed last night at 11. I'm afraid the next time a storm heads this way people will ignore it.
Radio says Jym Ganahl is calling for blizzard conditions later, FWIW.
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WTVN says that PA Turnpike going to be shut down for commercial vehicles until tomorrow.
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You're a stone's throw from my office (maybe a small cannon) - I'm next to the Chase complex. Much better now that they fixed S Old State.
My computer says it's 33 now.
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3 minutes ago, buckeye said:
I'm at my office in Lewis Center....small world. Moderate rain but it's that kind of rain that when hits the windshield you can tell it's partial ice.
I'm working from my home office (my real office is at Polaris but decided to work from home). To be fair, I'm just looking out the window - haven't been outside yet although may go out to try to start the snowblower, which crapped out on me last week.
Where in LC? I'm up in Orange Twp just to the west of the park.
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Plain rain here in Lewis Center - haven't seen a whiff of snow.
Let’s talk winter!! Ohio and surrounding states!!
in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Posted
Played softball against him around 30 years ago - he was pretty good. The two games that I played against him he was their pitcher.