BigBen89

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Euro has interesting outcome for the next storm. A cutoff low just sliding underneath us and even heading south east. Results in this

I bet the ensembles will have some good hits. 

Lol

39 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not sure if this has been posted somewhere else:

 

Such an embarrassment. With all the latest technological advances, these models are all over the place, and there's so many of them, all with a different solution.

See Yinz all next week! Bye for now!

1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said:

12z NAM all snow at KPIT

Could you do one for LBE? Thanks.

2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

interested to see how much of that is sleet

Based on the latest NAM run, and the 3k NAM run, I'd say a lot of this shown is sleet. I feel we're in for a big let down.

Just now, blackngoldrules said:

Yes. For the most part, it's on its own. There's no way I can see that warm wedge not making it to Allegheny County like the latest NAM suggests. It almost always does in this scenario.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

10-4. I guess we'll see in an hour or so...

So, are we ignoring the 06z NAM run? Is it to be trusted???

More realistic 

10 minutes ago, jwilson said:

The Euro control and EPS both were north of the OP this morning.  That's a bit of a red flag at this juncture.  I'd bet even the Euro and Ukie maps - which look decent enough - look much worse if you filter out sleet.  The NAM basically gives the metro area a foot of sleet.  Wouldn't surprise me much if a lot of that turns to rain in real-time.  My confidence is waning.

I haven't jumped off the bridge just yet, but I have my toes to the edge.

...red flag in hand...

A lot of this shown is sleet/freezing rain...

FWIW - NAM thru 69 hours. Includes a bunch of sleet...

9 minutes ago, lwg8tr0514 said:

Boy this thread is quiet, if all the models sh*t the bed I am sure there would be lots of folks here bellyaching.  We have a 8+" storm on the way and nada here.  Come on folks, take yes for an answer and let's talk about what's coming.  I like where we are at not in the bullseye... 72 hours out. Models seem to be coalescing on a solution where most of our precip is of the frozen variety.  I think Washington County north gets over a foot.

On pins and needles just along the PA Pike in West Mo Co, so not so positive my friend.

1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Pretty good analysis from NWS discussion too:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Precipitation will continue into the overnight hours, with most
of it ending before dawn on Friday.

Colder air behind this front will not arrive until Friday
afternoon and this cold air advection will find the trip
southward rather difficult as the flow aloft remains zonal.
Could see a few lingering snow showers over the north and
ridges, with the colder air and west-northwest flow.

Saturday is where the focus will be, as a major winter storm
will develop over the over the south-central US and move
rapidly northeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic. Model are still
struggling with a consensus on the track of the storm and where
the rain/ice/snow line will setup. Operational models have come
into better agreement with a faster track, which means snow
starting a bit earlier on Saturday.

The whole key to impact will be where the transition line
develops. With an amazingly tight cloud level temperature
gradient, 20 to 40 miles will mean the difference between minor
accumulations to warning level accumulations. Models are also
surprisingly similar on snow amounts, but the placement of the
snow/ice/rain line remains elusive. Will continue with the idea
of using a blend of models to determine where that line will
setup.

The main driving factor in the path of the low will be the
evolution of the upper level trough developing the system. How
far south the trough digs Saturday, and the resulting height
rises to the east of the trough axis, will be key to
determining not only the low track, but also placement of the
cold and warm airmasses. One thing that models are not showing
on Saturday is a phasing between the southern and northern
stream energies. The phasing was also very important on how far
north the surface low could proceed, as it would deepen the
trough and provide more of a strong southerly flow in the upper
levels. This lack of phasing is leading me to believe that the
low may track a bit further south then say the GFS, which in
turn would push the rain/ice/snow line further south. This
additional atmospheric wrinkle only increases the need for a
model blend this far out.

Its not an exaggeration to state that a difference of 40 or 50
miles will be the difference between 1 to 2 inches of snow and 8
to 12 inches of snow.

Depending on how far north the warm air aloft pushes, we could
have a big problem with ice as well.

Lets hope the line sets up along the Mason/Dixon line, or south...

Yes, not looking good for us south of the Burgh. We always seem to get screwed with the WAA. We need this thing to go another 75 miles SOUTH.

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ICON was horrible for SWPA. Absolutely horrible.

6 hours ago, ravensrule said:

Dang.... That warm air loves to push up into my back yard.... ugh, can't catch a break...