wintertime

15 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Okay.  I brought that up.  I don't think the purpose of winter storm warning is exactly the same as a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  The threat isn't something so imminent that people need to be suddenly interrupted with whatever they are doing to be alerted.  Yes, people will probably find out a storm is coming via hearsay or social media, but it's still good to have an official source that you can rely on for consistent wording.  That is where NWS warnings are useful.

I agree! The NWS is a great agency. Not perfect by any means. All NWS offices are not the same. Some are, seemingly, more reliable than others, but I believe they all try their best to do a good job to keep the public as safe as possible. I also believe people, in general, are much too hard on the NWS when it comes to winter weather and snowfall forecasts in particular. They can not see the future. They have to rely on flawed models just like everyone else does to make an accurate snowfall forecast. Models are not technologically advanced to the point that accurate snowfall accumulations can be given for each particular winter storm. So when a forecast office puts out a winter weather advisory when, in hind sight, it probably could have been a winter storm warning people get far too bent out of shape. Who cares? No one is going to be put in danger because the NWS issued a WWA instead of a WSW. Tornado warnings are a different best altogether. Flash flood warnings a different beast. People's lives are dependant upon, many times, split second accuracy. As I can attest, because I am one myself, snow lovers get a little crazy over a missed snowfall forecast!

37 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said:

Lmao at relying on social media for forecasts; you’d have nothing but hype snow maps 300+ hours from the event time.


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Too funny!!!! Lol!!!! Who said anything about relying on social media for an accurate forecast? Funny how people read into things! I did see someone refer to social media as a means by which people would know a storm is impending! Lol!!!!!!

6 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I'll bet you my left nut that snowstorms kill far more people than tornadoes do so it's actually totally the same. 

Splitting hairs between WWA's and WSW's = tornado warnings.                                                      

2+2=5

Totally the same!

6 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

Lol it’s the same conversation though. I digress. This has gotten way too off topic and I don’t need people to complain about it like they did about Dallas.


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I digress. It's not the same. It started with people complaining about the NWS dropping the ball by not issuing a winter storm warning instead of a winter weather advisory. That's what I've been discussing. It's getting ridiculous at this point. Really, enough said about it. Lol

3 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

But where do you draw the line? By that logic you could argue there is no need to issue tornado, severe thunderstorm, or flash flood watches or warnings because everyone could just get this information from other sources.


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This discussion began about winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings. Not other advisories. If you are talking in regards to tornado warnings, flash flood warnings, then that is a different discussion altogether.

1 minute ago, Malacka11 said:

I took the risk because I presumed that nothing stupid like that would happen to me and because I knew I'd almost certainly be okay no matter what since I'm in the suburbs. However, the warning specifically highlighted things that the average Joe will definitely not figure out for themselves unless you hammer them home, primarily that the windchill and blowing snow means You're fucked if you get caught in the middle of nowhere. Hence why I say that if that would've happened to me like a couple counties south in the middle of nowhere, it would've have been a very dicey situation. The entire point of the NWS is to make everyone's lives easier by offering reliable forecasts. I don't see why we would want to strip their ability to do their job away from them. Not all winter threats are built the same, why is that so controversial? It can snow an inch overnight and not even warrant an advisory, or it could snow an inch in the middle of rush hour with cold road temperatures and fuck everything. Most people I know don't even start checking the weather until they catch wind of some sort of bigger story brewing, so methinks that a large number of advisory events would slip through the cracks until they show up out of nowhere and make you 45 minutes late for work. And guess who gets blamed if that happens?

 

I suppose the difference between you and I is the fact that I believe people can manage themselves. The average Joe can make his way in the snow, in the winter, in Illinois and Wisconsin. If there is a big headline event everyone is going to catch wind of it in this day and age. The same people caught of guard by adverse conditions, in this day and age, are the same people who will be caught off guard by adverse conditions whether the NWS puts out warnings or not. If the NWS didn't exist weather headlines would still be out to the public all over the place. Social media. Local news! It's everywhere now. There is a need for the NWS. I'm glad it's there, but they are no longer the be all end all. WWA or WSW? People are going to know what's coming regardless. 

10 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I can speak from firsthand experience that winter headlines make all the difference not just to individuals but to businesses that rely on them. Just because your mom doesn't know or care about the difference between 1" and 4" in the forecast doesn't mean that the difference doesn't have a major impact on society as a whole. An argument that all of this nuance doesn't matter is seriously riddled with naivete.

 

Anyone who thinks this year's Christmas storm didn't deserve a warning definitely did not drive around in it. I lost a fuel injector about half way through the 20 minute drive to my SO's apartment, and I barely managed to limp the car there the rest of the way. Thank fuck it's a short drive in a fairly populated area, idk what I would've done out in the middle of bumfuck. 

 

 

That would have happened to you whether there was a winter storm warning issued or not. Why where you out there in those conditions to begin with in a winter storm warning knowing the conditions were as bad as they were? Why? Because it's life. You wanted and decided to be out there. You knew the risk. People can manage their lives in snow. If you tell them how much snow you are forecasting to fall, people will adjust their lives. People aren't stupid. Neither are businesses. Give them an accumulation forecast and they will adjust their lives and businesses accordingly.

5 minutes ago, wintertime said:

That headline would probably work. Unless we are talking about a life threatening blizzard, who cares about the headline. Give people a snow accumulation forecast and that's really all that matters. If you live in Chicago or Milwaukee in the winter time please tell me what the big deal is. It snows every winter. Around 40 inches on average. This isn't the deep south where a half inch of snow shuts the place down. WWA or WSW. Who cares? Aside from weather weenies?

If the general public was on this forum watching weather weenies slice and dice, splitting hairs over a winter weather advisory and winter storm warning they would be calling the people on this forum the crazy ones, not the NWS.

15 minutes ago, snowman33 said:

By this logic we should do away with all headlines. Could you imagine GHD 1 with no headlines at all? Just "It's Chicago. It's Milwaukee. It's winter. It snows."

That headline would probably work. Unless we are talking about a life threatening blizzard, who cares about the headline. Give people a snow accumulation forecast and that's really all that matters. If you live in Chicago or Milwaukee in the winter time please tell me what the big deal is. It snows every winter. Around 40 inches on average. This isn't the deep south where a half inch of snow shuts the place down. WWA or WSW. Who cares? Aside from weather weenies?

3 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

Well we had MKE office drop a big ball on this one.  Winter Storm Watch -> WWA -> Winter Storm Warning.  I'm sure that left the general public either confused or they have now tuned it out completely.

EDIT: and all these changes before the event even begins.  They should have either upgraded to a warning yesterday or held on to the watch until this morning if they were uncertain.  IMO they handled headlines wrong on this one changing them this much before the event is even here.

The general public? Like they care. If you're not a weather fanatic like the people on this and other weather forums who cares? The public knows it's going to snow whether it's a WAA or WSW. It's Chicago. It's Milwaukee. It's winter. It snows.

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Is the GFS broken?

Yeah. It's been broken for at least 15 years.

On 2/4/2019 at 1:26 PM, beavis1729 said:

This is a complete disgrace.

My kids build snow forts last week and go sledding and ice skating, when we finally get some wintry weather in this joke of a season...and then it’s all gone. 15” of snow cover melted in 2 days. It would be bad enough to lose 5” in 2 days during DJF; even that should never happen. Last week, it looked like the ponds and lakes may actually freeze solid for a long time, until mid March like it should...but now they are melting out already. How can this happen? It was -27 four days ago, and the lakes are melting now????? It’s completely unacceptable. There is no other way to describe it.

When a pattern relaxes or turns “unfavorable”, it should mean a modest 5-10” of snowfall over a couple week period, and mild temps in the 20s. Then, the good/decent 2 week periods should be 15”+ of snow with cold temps, like what happened in the second half of January. It should never get above freezing in DJF. Doesn’t need to be below zero consistently like last week...but winter is a season, not a “series of events”. I am so sick of people’s expectations being so low. We should not have to hope for the EPO, AO, ENSO, etc. to behave a certain way in order to have wintry weather. We have had 3 weeks of winter out of 9 DJF weeks this season so far. That is not winter. And parts of the Chicago area have only had 2 weeks, as they missed out on the November storm. Are there ever any summers where only 2 weeks out of 9 feel like summer???? In most summers (June 10th to Sep 10th), 90% of the days feel like summer. In summer, people don’t worry about needing the right pattern or indices to get summer weather. In July and August, it’s summerlike because the calendar says it’s summer. Very simple!!!

It’s always something. In early December, when you would think it’s time to get excited about winter due to the short days, normal highs are still around 40. That is not winter...so what is the point of getting excited about the short days?? Then in late January, the daylight is getting noticeably longer. In February, the sun angle increases. Of course it doesn’t mean that snow can’t stick...but it has a big impact on snow retention. In February, there is noticeable snow melt on sunny days with highs in the 20s. That shouldn’t happen. So then we are left with 6 weeks of what you would think is decent, stable winter. But even during this time, highs in the 30s or warmer are fairly common...which is ridiculous. Good luck retaining snow with those temps. Even our coldest time of year isn’t winter!!! 

But nobody gives a crap. How can people just accept this? How can people keep pretending that we have winter? Sure, we have “occasional wintry weather”, but not winter. There is a huge difference.

What is the point of having any interest in winter. It is a false hope...every single ****** year. I am so so so angry I could scream at everyone in the entire state. It is an abomination. Good bye all. I cannot take this anymore. May be back next winter, but probably not. Not worth the anxiety and trouble. Best wishes to all of you. This is nothing personal against anyone. I just can’t take the inner anger and sadness anymore. And yes, I would like to move...but I need to support my family here in this ******* for at least 10 more years. Trying to save as much as possible to leave sooner.

This is an epic rant! I have not laughed so hard in a long time! You have to be a true snow lover to get just how funny this is. We all get let down by caring as much as we do for snow and cold, but wow!