LowCountryCat

Just had a look at the Euro ensembles. Still a surprising spread for only 60 hour forecast. Many tracks south like the op run. There is quite a difference now between GFS and Euro at hour 60.  Euro has had a left bias this storm though I believe. 

18Z FV3 says not so fast GFS--not much different from 12Z. Edit: literally does not move from 66-72.

2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

euro and gfs not far off, euro just a bit more offshore but both take very similar paths.  

Yes, maybe 50 mile difference.  Remarkable agreement for a 3-4 day forecast.  I've decided to evacuate after holding out this long.

1 minute ago, ragtop50 said:

In the 11 a.m. NHC discussion:
The shortwave trough over the southern Plains seen in water vapor
imagery could end up being a significant factor as it rounds the
narrow ridge over the Tennessee Valley and is expected to erode the
ridge along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast on days 3-5. At this time,
little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, which remains
very close to the aforementioned consensus aids through 72 hours.

Would this mean a possible north or NW adjustment of the tracks for days 3-5?  Just looking for some explanation as to what the result of the trough eroding the ridge would have.

I believe they are referring to the possibility of the southern portion of the ridge that blocks Flo's western/SW progression to be eroded, allowing a path into SC/GA a la what the Euro shows.