gjlp

2 minutes ago, southernskimmer said:

Confirmed from multiple locals that the Oak Island pier is down. 

Web cam shows at least one Oak Island pier -- OceanCrest -- is still standing... for now. http://www.oceancrestpiernc.com/webcam.html

10 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Could somebody post AF309 mission #9 recon plots from Tropical Tidbits? It would be so interesting to see the wind plots for 1 or 2 passes into the eye. I have to go and I won't be able to see Tropical Tidbits again until later, when the plots are gone. As of right now, recon is hitting 45mph winds and getting closer to the storm.

79 kt at 297° approaching eyewall in SW quadrant

1 minute ago, gjlp said:

Actually, last few runs of GFS have been pretty consistent. The latest doesn't have as pronounced a loop but the outcome is still much the same.

And very similar to 00z Canadian

Actually, last few runs of GFS have been pretty consistent. The latest doesn't have as pronounced a loop but the outcome is still much the same.

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS and CMC both with crazy stall loop landfall solutions.  Most major landfalls plow into the coast rather than stall for 36hrs just offshore and cut inland.  If it does this it will likely weaken below CAT3 status.

True -- but no before decimating NC coastline. Then heads inland and dumps days of rain over central NC.

And finally landfall  @136hrs NC/SC border

Just now, gjlp said:

The new 00z GFS run

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2018091100&fh=114

1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

What models are showing a stall? Is it just global models? Seems like most hurricane models bring it onshore

The new 00z GFS run

Good grief... now moving SW

1 minute ago, Cooper08 said:

Sits off the coast and slightly on land in same area for 24 hrs would be devastating for that area. 

Indeed... the Outer Banks are so fragile... devastating is the right word.

Hah!  Stalled @78hr before landfall

And big drop in pressure (10mb) from 66 to 72hrs... from 930MB down to 918MB

Looking like GFS is about to make landfall at Cape Hatteras

Just now, senc30 said:

Continued west through 54

Yup... more west/south and 8mb stronger than previous run