JVscotch
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Posts posted by JVscotch
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9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:
Btw did anyone see flurries in central MD or near the blue ridge in VA?
I saw clouds with heavy virga that appeared to reach the ground to the N and W of me (Ashburn)
I saw decent flurries this morning in Gambrills around 11 am or so
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18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:
-VP setting up near the dateline on the ECMWF weeklies as well. this is into the first week of December
very similar to the Modoki years and far west of the canonical EP super Nino years
Interesting. Though the U.S has a lot more lift like the stronger years. Generally with your thoughts though for the further west forcing will help us win more times this winter compared to normal or the warmer/stronger years, especially as we head into mid-winter.
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1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:
95-96 was our last "dry snow" significant winter.
I felt like 2013-2014 had it’s fair share of cold powder but I know it was mixed with a couple wetter events.
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36 minutes ago, HighStakes said:
79, 83, 96, 2003, 2016 very cold storms. Only 2010 had marginal cold.
The upper level low in the second and bigger phase of the February 10th storm had temps drop to upper teens/low 20s and produced 10-12” just east/north east of dc. That was an awesome event and had strong winds.
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I’m quite shocked how unstable it is outside already. May have the highest cape values this early compared to any other time this summer that I can remember. Even mid-level lapse rates aren’t too shabby. Shear could be better of course but definitely decent parameters in place. I haven’t really been following this event too closely outside of chance of storms/rain over several days.
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I think most are talking the second half of spring into half of June. Usually we start feeling summer temps in May, but not this year. Definitely a cooler start. But July turned around in comparison for sure.
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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:
HM says his preferred analogs right now are 1899 and 1925. Have no idea what that means for us.
Right. They were around 25 inches (1899-1900) and 20 inches at bwi. Maybe that could mean a 30+ inch winter now if temps can cooperate enough. Would be nice to have a biggie but maybe we can squeeze out two!
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The front-end event on the 24th is back on the CMC. That event could happen if that northern stream does setup the confluence behind it and the pacific wave is able to run into it quick enough. Plus the timing is ideal (as-is) for snow to fall at night. Obvious caveats apply; biggest being the winter of 2022-2023.
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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
There is more cold than we have had with all the other garbage threats where we were praying for an absolutely perfect track...then we got one and it still was just rain lol. We will need a dynamic system and a good track obviously given the time of year. But...this euro run was showing that. Look at the flow at day 10. That upper low is going to track right across to our south. That was the solution we need.
Exactly. You can see the flow over the northeast is still confluent and snow is actually breaking out to our southwest.
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3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:
In the 60s, these patterns used to really deliver. 18z NAM looks good in my opinion. It's really favorable in the upper levels so I'm not going away.
Exactly what I thought. Better than 12z NAM and each of the main globals (not ensembles).
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4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:
The long range pattern is utter garbage. But The long range models have been utter garbage as well. So you are right, who knows?
The one thing that has started popping up on all models (though it’s around 216-240 hours out) is a block forming around Scandinavia and maybe could be a saving grace or at least could add some hope against the Pacific if it can retrograde. We’ll see but hoping for whatever we can squeeze out.
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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:
Single malt is the only way to go on scotch.
Yes the best ones are. But with how prices are, I have a couple in my collection that are well worth the value and better than a lot of single malts, especially the usual suspects sold here in the states. Spica 29 year blended from North Star Spirits was around $115 and easily has a rating of at least 91/100 in my book.
Side note in case you or anyone here who is into scotch, buying online from Europe will save you 30-50% on average plus give you way more offerings than what’s available in the U.S. Unfortunately most of my old Netherlands spots stopped shipping here.
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15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:
WB 18Z GEFS; know you aren’t supposed to use ensembles within 3 days….
Was this improved vs. 12z?
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4 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:
do you know what website has it?
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12z UKmet with a general 3-6 inches (most north and west)
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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:
Anybody guess this 500mb composite
December 2009?
December Mid/Long Range Discussion
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
18z Icon actually trended better and shows snow NW of the cities and getting very close to a changeover for a bit further east.