Njweathered

12” in Vernon and still snowing 

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

As had been a possibility prior to the big nor'easter, New York City picked up no measurable snowfall from the storm. Places less than 30 miles outside of the City such as Rye Brook saw the ground whitened. As a result, New York City remains on a path that could culminate in its lowest seasonal snowfall on record.

After a blustery day tomorrow, milder air will return to the region. Thursday through Saturday could see readings reach the 50s in much of the region. Cooler air will likely return to close the weekend.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 10, New York City is at growing risk of seeing winter 2022-2023 finish with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, 82% of winters with less than 8" of snow through March 10 wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. All such winters wound up with less than 20" of seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.76°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -6.89 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.616 today.

On March 12 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 4.161 (RMM). The March 11-adjusted amplitude was 4.197 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.5° (0.3° below normal).

 

Thanks, Don.

Any idea how the winters *after* those lowest snowfall winters made out? Is it a mixed bag of N, AN, BN, or is there any overwhelming trend?  I know it’s a small sample. Thanks.

Great view across the valley at the 600’ elevation line

10 hours ago, snywx said:

The way things are looking, we may get off to a fast start up here leading up to christmas. Time will tell I guess

This year has that feel to it for sure.

WWA here in Vernon NJ. Cheers to a great season guys!

4” on my hill in Vernon NJ.

5 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Does anyone else get frost quakes in their yard during these cold nights?

We get them every winter, very loud on the coldest nights, like last night. From what I've read about them they're nothing to be concerned about, but one of these mornings I'm expecting to see a crater in my backyard.

Any insight would be appreciated if anyone has experienced them.

here in Vernon, 1/15 around 1am. Always shocking.

also have lots of black walnut trees here with frost cracks. 
 

I think this is a 6-8” paste job before changeover for the N/W burbs in a band from about my house in Sussex County Nj over to about Stroudsburg…and more nw of there.

This feels like a generator tester.

Just now, Rjay said:

Ummm dude.  You have no idea.  

Meow

2” fresh powder otg next door to mountain creek.

Snowing moderately

Pack is sitting at about 19-20”

Waking up to flakes in Vernon (again).  

7 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

 

 

To be fair I didn't really look into the details until now.  The low in Canada is just a vigorous northern stream s/w.  It's not like a storm developed over the plains and drove into the block.  So I guess it's plausible. 

 

To put it simply, the gfs op has a strong southern stream s/w and weaker northern stream which allows the storm come up the coast.  Note the higher heights on the EC than the para.  

 

 The para has a weaker, slower southern stream s/w and a stronger northern stream keeping heights on the EC much lower.  Even if the southern stream were stronger this run it wouldn't come up the coast.

 

Btw, I'm legit laughing at breaking down a day 9/10 op run but it's always fun to learn I guess.  

well I don’t ever look at the gfs or gfs para, or any other guidance.

but if I did I would say this is a fine comparison young man, the finest.

do you buy the stronger northern stream? Do you think there’s time to toss in a tilt in the right place and force it up? 
 

18* in Vernon right now.

Looks like it’s really coming. Hope y’all get clobbered!

1 minute ago, North and West said:

Maybe I’m too far south now in MMU?

Also, is everyone ok in this thread? Everyone seems... grounded and reasonable.


.

MMU looks amazing. Enjoy this one. 

Perspective from Sussex County, NJ.  NWS and 6z NAM spread some N&W love.

Good luck everyone  
 

13 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Since many don't know how to use the banter thead and we don't keep clogging the main disco thread with weenie threats that pop up and disappear, discuss any upcoming threats in here.   

Feel free to be a super weenie in here.  Tony, metsfan, have at it.  Toss em. 

 

 

Looks like a solid threat for the N&W burbs next weekend. Wouldn’t take much to adjust that to the coast. 7 days is an eternity. 

3” total in Vernon

Snowing in Vernon.

Good to be back here tracking.