PressureDrop2017

This was a brilliant parody of fake reporting of The Weather Channel, made by some locals

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDlzrwK5M6c

16 hours ago, Mdecoy said:

I would have toned it down.

Yes, preparation is great, but leading the governor in NC to say its the storm of a lifetime is a problem. Why? because people who weren't that effected will stay next time.

I think the NHC should know by now that model intensities are terrible. Need to tread lightly. The stall and crawl and just climo in general argued heavily against a CAT 4 or even a CAT 3 coming in.  I'd even say a CAT 2 was a stretch. But people on here even started whispers of a CAT 5. THE NHC put out that people should expect winds of up to 120MPH. They forecasted a CAT 4 moving in at one point. That was overkill IMO.

Again, there needs to be a balance. People need to take it seriously, but they get too carried away with the hype and ignore climo.

Another factor is this takes place in an atmosphere of general distrust of media, and now anything objectionable can simply be dismissed as "fake news" 

Plus, some outright frauds in the weather reporting, such as Mike Seidel, who actually did produce fake news, pretending that he can't stand up when others are walking casually in the background. And lying about the windspeed being 60 MPH when meanwhile it says on their own live broadcast that the speed is 29 MPH. That's not an exaggeration, it's an outright lie. The Weather Channel hasn't fired Seidel despite his clown act becoming an internet meme with millions of views  

On 9/15/2018 at 2:19 AM, the ghost of leroy said:

Lol

Now do you believe it, Leroy ? 

So pompous, laughing at death and devastation 

3 hours ago, hickory said:

In the bible of our lord. It rained 40 days and 40 nights. Maybe what SE NC got like 2-3 days. It's a flood but nothing like our lord did. Low end event.

There wasn't a global flood within the timeframe of Christianity (or Mesopotamian civilization for that matter). The 'Noah' myth can be traced back to Sumerian mythology, and the most likely origin of that was: the simple observation of geological strata ... ancient people could find seashells in eroded inland locations, and infer correctly that those regions must once have been underwater. Natural fact in search of an explanation, in pre-scientific times... and the 'flood' as a traditional teaching eventually made it into writing in Mesopotamian clay tablets  

Partly true ... the top two turn out to be still photos from Haiyan which were included in a Philippine news report about Mangkhut 

The lower two actually are Mangkhut, they are screenshots from videos posted to social media 

Good observation 

There will be plenty of similar images unfortunately

Typhoon Mangkhut, Cat 5 with 160 MPH wind sustained, wind gusts to 185 MPH

Some videos are starting to come in with the devastation, there are some local tornado-like effects in which roofs of buildings are torn off, debris flying hundreds of feet up in the air, cars and trucks lifted and flipped 

This track for Supertyphoon 'Mangkhut' has thus far been accurate. 

Looks like for sure is going to be a direct hit on the northern part of Luzon, Phillipines. And then open ocean for a long way, and becoming a threat to Southeast Asia

On 9/12/2018 at 9:14 PM, Chinook said:

Super Typhoon Mangkhut is now a textbook Category 5 cyclone, and JTWC predicts that it will impact the northern Phillipines (Luzon.)  It might be a pretty close call with landfall

 

 

It looks a like a direct hit at this time and has actually intensified since earlier today. So that ought to be the big tropical storm weather story, not Florence. But this is American Weather so fair enough

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/MANGKHUT.html

Parts of New Bern, NC are already underwater, as was predicted by simulations based on elevation maps

Mariott Hotel of New Bern looks like it is hosed, 4 feet of water around it

1 hour ago, wawayanda said:

Live cam from the pier at Bogue Inlet, Emerald Isle NC.

http://www.ebmcdn.net/webcast/flash/bogue-inlet/live-iframe.html

Three of the kiosks on the Bogue pier blew out already while we were watching, and that is just getting started. 

That area around Emerald Isle gets absolutely hammered for two days, with way worse than what is happening now. So frankly it would be surprising if that pier is still standing on Sunday

That cam is the best live view of the point of impact, thanks for posting it   

Atlantic Beach, NC looks like they might lose the pier, it is wobbling severely already, with the wave crashes almost up to the level of the deck

Storm chaser on North Topsail trying unsuccessfully to convince mobile home residents in an RV park that they have to leave, he is freaking because because they don't want to evacuate 

Myrtle Beach cam, kids walking around casually, some people fishing and playing in the surf like nothing's happening

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/southcarolina/myrtlebeach/?cam=myrtlebeach_hd

North Topsail live storm chaser, he's driving around, freaking about the breaches in the dunes, stressin' 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzgZEgAJCVk

4 hours ago, Raine1212 said:

Hi guys, everyone in my area is not concerned about the storm, but I am. What do you guys think about my area of 30809, Evans GA. I am to trying prepare , but getting really worried 

The wind probably will not be damaging, could be some flooding of low-lying areas next to the Savannah River. If ten inches of rain fell over the course of three days, what would happen in town... that's kind of the worst scenario I could imagine, if these predictions about Florence are accurate. A few days from now, you should have accurate local forecasts of how much rain, if any, to expect. Right now the local weather is saying maybe two inches and that it will be very windy on Sunday (38 MPH) 

1 hour ago, f2tornado said:

For perspective, Katrina was about 120 TJ at landfall and Sandy was around 140 TJ. Florence is seemingly increasing wind radii and IKE is likely increasing with time. 

Is this correct regarding the intensity of 'superstorm' Sandy, because other sources, including NOAA, give the kinetic energy including TS as topping out at 300+ terajoules

http://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/hwind/timeseries/IkeTimeSeries.html

because of the massive size of 'superstorm' Sandy. What's the reason for the discrepancy with the 140TJ figure, maybe because there could be differing definitions of kinetic energy

EDIT: Or, alternatively, talking about the kinetic energy 'at landfall' of Sandy as having been in Cuba... which is true but misleading because of the increased size after heading out into the Atlantic 

For the member concerned about parents who ignore the evacuation of Sunset Beach, this video is of Hurricane Fran conditions about 5 miles from their location. It would be prudent for them to prepare for something similar to Fran in windspeed, and possibly worse than Fran in flooding. North Myrtle Beach and vicinity appear at 1 hour 30 minutes, the URL should start the video at that time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zq2dLAoQwDs#t=1h30m8s

To get them to realize the devastation that was caused by Hurricane Fran, and therefore not to take the risk about the uncertain track of Florence. The island portion of Sunset Beach is already under mandatory evacuation orders, the causeway is likely to be completely underwater like it was in Hurricane Matthew

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/weather/article106951087.html

and with water that high, it seems questionable whether the barrier-island offers much protection to the onshore part of Sunset Beach

The GFS 18Z model looks like the cartoon physics of a bouncy-ball hitting North Carolina and rebounding onto South Carolina. Or as if calculated to be the most insulting and disastrous path for South Carolinans who had thought they would be spared. Intuitively looking at that track people would say "that's absurd", but I guess there are some unusually complex systems besides the cyclone, affecting this one  

Many of those in the Lumber River / Lumberton NC area still have not fully recovered from Hurricane Matthew less than two years ago. If the models predicting Florence inland 'stall' over southeast NC prove true, that is a cruel fate for those poor people. This time there will be better preparedness, but  so unfortunate to lose again what they have managed to rebuild  

The anemometer on the north side of St. Croix got up to 64 knots, then appears to have broken or stopped transmitting. Barometer still working. Water rising

On the south side of the island, the 'Lime Tree Bay' station has similar numbers, and worsening conditions

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=9751401

1 hour ago, dan11295 said:

Barring a jog to the north, it would appear that St. Croix will miss the eyewall. They will still get the RFQ but will probably avoid any extreme wind damage. Not out of the woods though for them obviously.

Maybe.

Some news coming out of Dominica slowly from 'ham radio' operators, sporadically, but the essence is bad, very bad

http://wicnews.com/caribbean/dominica-devastation-emerges-fatalities-90-buildings-destroyed-44575828/

90 percent of housing 'destroyed', known fatalities, landslides, flooding

It seems the damage is comparable to that of Barbuda, with the exception that Dominica is far more mountainous and therefore landslides are likely