mjr

Having a hard time finding historical lists of annual 90+ days for various stations, for example LGA, EWR, BOS, DCA, with

LGA being a proxy for the NY metropolitan area.

While there is no question that BOS<LGA<DCA, I'm wondering if there have been any years in which either part of the

inequality didn't apply (Central Park is a different story). While it seems to apply so far in 2022, it would be interesting if artificial local anomalies

(tree canopy or Newark hot spot as opposed to proximity to ocean) are able to overwhelm climatological norms this year so that EWR would have more 90+ days than DCA

while NYC would have fewer than BOS in the same year. After a slow start BOS has been gaining on NYC. Of course, number of 90+days

is one dimensional and totally misleading but that is the benchmark that everyone uses. 

7 hours ago, Cfa said:

KNYC deserves a brushfire.

Great idea...problem solved.

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

but why is it so awful today?  Surely this cant count as one of those warm se ridge days- I see an ULL is once again messing up our weather

Backdoor cold fronts suck. They can happen at any time of the year. I believe that the geography of LI Sound helps funnel NE winds into NYC and propels some of these fronts through when one might expect them to remain to the east of us. Also, I feel that this makes it more difficult for them to return through NYC as a warm front. I have been frustrated at forecasts predicting sunny 80 degree temps only to spend the day in the 50s while central NJ gets up to 80.

I have no evidence to back this up but it seems to me that these fronts frequently occur in situations that feature an upper level eastern ridge. Upper level eastern ridges can translate to surface highs over Eastern Canada which send down backdoor fronts.

I am also pretty pessimistic about EWR reaching 70 Tuesday unless we experience unexpected afternoon breaks of sun.

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

An area of showers and thundershowers moved through the region late this morning and early this afternoon. A total of 0.27" of rain fell in New York City's Central Park pushing the monthly rainfall total to 10.03". As a result, New York City has seen a record 3 consecutive months with 10" or more of rain. Records go back to 1869.

In addition, 10" or more of rain each month from July-September is unprecedented this far north. In 1894 and again in 1945, Downtown Charleston, SC (32.78°N) saw 10" or more of rain during this period. In 1946, Wilmington, NC (34.21°N) saw 10" or more of rain during this period. Then, in 2018, Dunn (4 NW), NC (35.31°N) recorded 10" or more during July, August, and September.

Year-to-date rainfall in New York City is now 51.96". That ranks 2021 as New York City's 33rd wettest year on record.

In the Northern Plains, today witnessed searing heat. The thermometer topped out at 98° at Bismarck, which surpassed the daily mark of 97° from 1905. This is also the latest 98° or above reading on record.

This evening, a few isolated showers and thundershowers are possible in parts of the region, but skies will clear. Tomorrow through Friday will feature plentiful sunshine and cool temperatures.

2021 remains on course to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

There is strong consensus on the long-range guidance that October will be an unseasonably warm month. The first half could feature much above normal readings in the Northern Plains into Central Canada. Overall, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas appear to be in line with a warmer to much warmer than normal October.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop during October.

The SOI was +36.90 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.474 today.

On September 26 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.081 (RMM). The September 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.823 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.3° (1.1° above normal).

 

September will end up with a mean temperature above 70, probably around 70.3. The Central Park thermometer

tried its best to make sure that it would not happen but the month ended one day too early. 

A few weeks ago someone was going to write a letter concerning the foliage issue to the powers that be. I wonder if anything

ever came of that. 

w 

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

This higher humidity is part of our shift to a humid subtropical climate. 60-80 days a year with 70° dew points used to be normal for the Delmarva to Southern NJ. Now it has moved up to the NYC area.

 

 

Very interesting research. I have always considered the C-D boundary to extend from St. Louis to NYC, roughly following the Ohio river. Amazing how changes of a fraction of a degree can put you in a completely different climate zone. I guess the line has to be drawn somewhere, though.

When I looked at the Britannica article, though, it struck me that on the map, the Eastern seaboard of the US could not be based on a 26.6F  demarcation. I dug a little deeper and it turns out that the map is based on a 2007 revision which does, in fact, use 32.0F.

Thanks for sharing this.

18 hours ago, mattinpa said:

Hi, Don. I am not so familiar with the different NYC area locations. Was there a reason JFK stayed so low?

A south wind at JFK comes directly off the cool ocean (about 1500 miles of it). At Newark,  even a south wind with no westerly component, travels over about 50 miles of land. Places like LGA and NYC are far enough away from the ocean so that they can experience significant daytime heating even if an afternoon sea breeze eventually cuts it off.  During the spring there can be times when the temperature difference between Newark and JFK can be 20 degrees or more. La Guardia underperforms if the wind direction is from the NE or ENE coming off Long Island Sound. Central Park underperforms if the trees have leaves on them.

Interestingly,  the Boston airport station is also directly on the ocean but  there the ocean is to the east. Thus, a south or southwest wind at Boston will allow for hot temperatures and a west wind even hotter because of a downslope effect. However, a wind from the north through the east (or, alternatively, a light pressure gradient allowing for an afternoon sea breeze) will result in unpleasantly chilly temperatures.

Geography is destiny. 

21 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

whats causing the heat to go north of us?  one would logically think that heat goes from south to north and therefore has to pass through us before it can get north of us?

 

At this time of year, under the right conditions, the high sun angle and dry ground can cause a hot air mass to be created in the Northern Plains without the need for the heat to be advected from the south. More southern areas may possibly be less extreme because of clouds, precipitation or whatever. This hot northern airmass can eventually be transported eastward to northern New England and Quebec. In this scenario, the heat goes from west to east and not from south to north. 

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The following information is based on a multiple regression equation based on high temperatures at Newark, LaGuardia Airport, and White Plains to estimate the high temperatures at Central Park for June to address the impact of today’s thick tree cover. The equation was based on June 1-June 30, 1971-2000 daily high temperatures. That period was the last base normal period during which at least half of the days were not impacted by increasing tree cover. A few days were excluded from the sample due to “Missing” values for White Plains.

Based on the regression equation, there may have been up to 32 additional 90° days in June during the 2000-20 period. That would lift Central Park’s average number of such days during June 2000-20 to 3.8 from 2.2. That would be reasonably in line with the 5.2 recorded at LaGuardia Airport and 4.2 at Newark. 

Excellent.

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

It’s back up to 89. Maybe it can hit 90.

Hope so.

This midafternoon flatline effect occurs too often to just be a coincidence.

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

So you’re saying it only rained in Central Park yesterday? Nowhere else? 

NYC was doing ok up to 2pm, generally keeping up with most other stations. No appreciable effect of the rain yesterday. 

Then, all of a sudden, it basically flatlines while other locations add 2-4 degrees more. This happens very frequently even with no sea breeze. It cannot take advantage of mid or late afternoon temperature increases. It seems likely that it because of deprivation of sun after about 2pm. 

On 6/4/2021 at 3:15 PM, donsutherland1 said:

LGA, JFK, and EWR are probably more likely to see such temperatures than Central Park.

Nantucket is more likely to see such temperatures than Central Park.

Seriously, would not be surprised if many stations in New England end the season with more 90s than NYC. They have a good head start.

15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. A shower or thundershower is possible. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 83°

Newark: 86°

Philadelphia: 84°

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with showers and periods of rain. It will be much cooler.

Good forecast except NYC flat lined at 81 from 2pm on. Sunny skies, no sea breeze, only station to do so. Have seen this frequently in past years.

11 hours ago, dWave said:

For a good chunk of spring CPK isnt fully leafed out yet, so the temp disparity doesn't show as much yet compared to nearby urban stations. Also in spring the Park is a little more protected from the frequent cool E/NE  flow, keeping LGA cooler on some days. As that influence gets weaker later on, back door fronts less common, and the vegetation gets lush the Park's cool bias starts on cue.

I wish I could find the article, but the NWS has already acknowledged this phenomenon is legitimate 10 yrs ago or so. They basically just accept it as is for a few reasons...

1. Technically KNYC is accurate for what it is, a dense semi forested park, and its readings accuratly reflect that. (Kinda putting the onus on the consumer to recognize a park for what it is vs an urbanized street and analyze accordingly.)

2. Its historical significance. Its one of the longest running climate stations, and in America's biggest city. They dont want to mess with it. So its just grandfathered in to the climate data despite falling short of their own offical standards.

3. There are plenty of offical weather stations around it to reflect the local urban climate. (Kind of putting it at the medias feet to use all available data to portray an accurate picture to the public.) In fact the closest offical reporting station for many/most NYC residents isnt KNYC, but LGA or JFK...all of Queens, the BX and portions of BK would fall into that.

The ASOS is not that far from Museum of Natural History. Its fenced in, surrounded by trees, last I saw some now hang over the top as well. In wetter patterns weeds and shrubs will be overgrown near-by too. The trees do help shield it from the public which the NWS probably likes.

It is precisely because of its significance that the historical record should not be corrupted by unrepresentative (of the larger surrounding area) data. They did "mess" with the site when the moved it to its current location back in the 1990s. To be fair, they probably could not foresee that this would lead to any significant change from the previous location but the "mess" soon became apparent. As is true in the stock market, they should have just "cut their losses" and rectified the situation.

Even if, in an ideal world,  the local population and the local media would be aware of the situation and analyze/report accordingly, this would not address the misconceptions that are created when national/world media as well as professional weather news and forecasting outlets summarize a summer season by using 90 degree days and give an inaccurate portrayal of New York City (no mention of any park).    

Here is a fall version of 90+ days. Listed are the number of 70+ days at certain locations for the month of October. It is likely that these will be the final figures.                                      Lakehurst, NJ (WRI)   15                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 EWR   12                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 LGA   11                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Hartford (BDL)   9                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Providence   9                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Boston   8                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              JFK   8                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Bridgeport   7                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        NYC   6

On ‎7‎/‎25‎/‎2020 at 7:05 PM, dWave said:

Yeah NYC has been (barely) humid subtropical for a while now. NYT probably worded it like that because it makes for a more attention grabbing headline. The substance of article is legitimate, but the headline is a little marketing spin. But it worked, it featured on sites like Gothmaist now.

I am surprised that the misleading and distorted description "subtropical" is still in use for the Cfa climate category. Something like humid warm temperate would make more sense. Anyway, as you said, it served the Times' purpose and probably elicited a lot of "You must be kidding" responses from people for whom "subtropical" evokes images of Orlando, New Orleans or Houston. Actually those three locations are in the same Cfa climate zone as NYC. However, if one uses 32F as a northern boundary, Yonkers is not. I realize that the line has to be drawn somewhere and in my opinion the problem is that there are not enough "lines". Given the steep temperature gradient along the east coast during the colder months one can easily make the argument that there should be a different zone every few hundred miles, not one huge zone from central FL to NYC. There are other alternative classifications and climate maps that try to do this. The crepe myrtle and sweet magnolia may be happy here, and I wish them all the best, but IMHO putting NYC and Orlando into the same zone is just absurd.

As an aside, when I was 7 or 8 years old my parents bought me Encyclopedia Brittanica. Like every normal kid, the first sections that I turned to were Weather and Climate. There, staring me in the face was a Koppen climate classification map that had NYC solidly in the colder Dfa climate zone. I remember getting a pencil, erasing the offending boundary line and redrawing it north of NYC.

13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

You make an important point. I have been using NYC due to its long climate record, which dates back to 1869. However, there has been a pronounced tendency for Central Park to show fewer 90 degree days than would be implied by regional data, individually and as an average (EWR-JFK-LGA-NYC).

Perspective 1:

During the 1959-2019 period, the regression equation in which the cases from JFK, LGA, and EWR were treated as independent variables and the Central Park number was the dependent variable, the Central Park number was less than predicted on 56% cases. However, since 2000, that number was less than predicted in 80% cases. The coefficient of determination was 0.728.

Perspective 2:

During the 1959-2019 period, the regression equation in which the 4-city average (which included Central Park) was the independent variable and the Central Park number was the dependent variable, the Central Park number was less than predicted on 56% cases. However, since 2000, that number was less than predicted in 95% cases. The coefficient of determination was 0.834. That Central Park had a tendency to have fewer 90 degree days than expected even when it was included in the mix highlights a microclimate that has been diverging from overall recent trends. Central Park is warming overall, but the relationship of its 90 degree days relative to the rest of the region has been  changing.

I will add a four-site average comprised of JFK-LGA-NYC-EWR that better reflects the overall regional impact. The coefficient of determination for that average against the independent variables of JFK, LGA, and EWR is 0.977 and the standard error is < 1.3.

Here is the data for 90° days for Select Cities (through July 14):

Albany: 10 (2019: 12 days)
Allentown: 8 (2019: 24 days)
Baltimore: 21 (2019: 59 days)
Boston: 1 (2019: 15 days)
Burlington: 12 (2019: 8 days)
Harrisburg: 11 (2019: 33 days)
Islip: 1 (2019: 8 days)
New York City-JFK: 4 (2019: 7 days)
New York City-LGA: 12 (2019: 26 days)
New York City-NYC: 6 (2019: 15 days)
Newark: 10 (2019: 27 days)
Philadelphia: 14 (2019: 35 days)
Washington, DC: 23 (2019: 62 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 8 (2019: 19 days)
...Expected: 8 (based on JFK-LGA-EWR data)

 

 

Thanks for your detailed analysis. The numbers appear to be consistent with anecdotal evidence and intuitive assumptions. The number of 90 degree days has become one of the primary metrics for describing summer heat at any given location and this is the exact measurement that is most affected by the Central Park issue.

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

To date, New York City has yet to experience a heat wave this summer. That will remain the case through the remainder of this week. However, a widespread heat wave could overspread the region starting this weekend.

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 13):

Albany: 10 (2019: 12)
Allentown: 8 (2019: 24)
Baltimore: 21 (2019: 59)
Boston: 1 (2019: 15)
Burlington: 12 (2019: 8)
Harrisburg: 11 (2019: 33)
Islip: 1 (2019: 8)
New York City: 6 (2019: 15)
Newark: 10 (2019: 27)
Philadelphia: 14 (2019: 35)
Washington, DC: 23 (2019: 62)

With a high temperature of 90°, Washington, DC registered its 19th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 90° or above. That is Washington's longest heat wave since July 29-August 18, 1988 when the temperature reached 90° or above on 21 consecutive days.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below.

The SOI was -11.39.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.885.

On July 13, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.715 (RMM). The July 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.877.

The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 44 consecutive days.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.3°.

 

I am curious as to why someone of your stature, knowledge and experience continues to use KNYC as a reflection of afternoon heat (no. of 90 degree days, heat wave occurrence) actually experienced in NY City. The legitimacy of the thermometer reading seems to have been severely corrupted by its placement in an area of dense foliage. When one thinks of NY City, midtown Manhattan comes to mind. The best proxies would seem to be LGA, EWR or TEB (or Central Park before 1996). Hypothetically, if those three sites were to record temperatures in the low to mid 90s while NYC only reached 89 because it might have rained two days earlier, and to thus conclude that New York City did not experience a heat wave, does not reflect reality. On this site, observers from Staten Island, Brooklyn and the Bronx all report significantly more 90+ days. In addition, to look at 2019 and conclude that NY City had only15 90 degree days, the same number as Boston, would be very misleading to an outside observer who did not know that LGA, EWR and TEB had 26-37 such days. A casual observer would certainly find it hard to believe and might form an inaccurate picture of actual NY summer conditions. KNYC is a proxy for its own small few hundred square foot area. It does not accurately represent any place else. To pretend otherwise risks legitimizing a false narrative of NYC summers

On ‎7‎/‎31‎/‎2019 at 8:03 PM, donsutherland1 said:

The Middle Atlantic and southern New England region concluded a very warm July. In New York City, the mean temperature was 79.5°, which was 3.0° above normal. That was tied with 1983 as New York City's 11th warmest July on record. The last time July was warmer was in 2013 when July had a monthly average temperature of 79.8°.

Such warmth has typically been followed by a warmer than normal August. Since 1869, New York City had 20 prior cases with a July mean temperature of 79.0° or above. The August mean temperature for those cases was 76.4° with a standard deviation of 2.2°. However, in the 11 cases in which the July average temperature was 79.5° or above, the August mean temperature was also 76.4°, but the standard deviation was just 1.2°. July 2019 falls into the latter warmer category. This data suggests that simply based on historical outcomes, August 2019 will very likely be warmer than normal in the region. Those historical outcomes are supported by teleconnections data and by at least some of the longer-range guidance.

The historic heat that smashed high temperature records in much of western Europe and then Scandinavia will continue to affect Iceland and Greenland for another day or two. Near-record to possibly record surface mass balance (SMB) loss could occur during that period. Already, rapid losses in SMB have been occurring.

Professor Jason Box, ice climatologist at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland observed, "On the Arctic Circle, southwestern Greenland ice sheet, 2019 melt to-date is 1.3x that of the previous record melt at that location in 2010. 1.4x that in 2012."

High temperatures in Greenland included Ilulissat: 66°; Kangerlussuaq: 72°; Kulusuk: 59°; Narsarsuaq: 66°; Nuuk: 50°; and, Thule: 54°.

Anchorage has concluded its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. The July 2019 mean temperature was 65.1°. That easily surpassed the old record of 62.7°, which was recorded in July 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was +3.14 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.647. A general tendency for blocking could persist through mid-August with perhaps some occasional fluctuations to positive values. This persistence of blocking will promote a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August.

Overall, 1993 remains the base case for the pattern that should generally prevail from mid-August to mid-September. Currently, the CFSv2 suggests that a warmer than normal pattern could develop around mid-August.

On July 30, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.434 (RMM). The July 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.600.

August will likely be warmer than normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The CFSv2, which understated the degree of warmth in July, suggests near normal conditions in August. However, based on the preponderance of date, it is likely an outlier. The potential exists for some cooler than normal to near normal readings from the middle of the first week of August into the latter portion of the second week of August. However, no notably cold readings appear likely. Afterward, warmer anomalies should return. The warmest anomalies relative to normal will likely occur during the second half of the month. Those warm anomalies will likely persist into at least the start of September.

Finally, On July 30, Arctic sea ice extent was 5.998 million square kilometers (JAXA). That broke the daily minimum record of 6.132 million square kilometers, which was set in 2012. It is also the earliest figure under 6.000 million square kilometers. The previous earliest figure occurred on August 3, 2012 when Arctic sea ice extent was 5.911 million square kilometers. Based on the average statistical decline and on sensitivity analysis, it is likely that Arctic sea ice extent will fall below 4.000 million square kilometers at its minimum for only the second time on record.

Some probabilities from the sensitivity analysis:

4.500 million square kilometers or below: 84%
4.000 million square kilometers or below: 63%
3.500 million square kilometers or below: 36%
 

Another example of Central Park erroneously being used as a legitimate proxy for New York City.

On ‎7‎/‎3‎/‎2019 at 6:09 PM, LibertyBell said:

lol JFK may reach 100 before Central Park does.

No one cares about Central Park anymore anyway, it doesn't reflect NYC weather in any way.  I dont know why the media ever uses them anymore, they should just use LGA which is far more reflective of urban NYC.

I wish the NWS would send a bulletin to the media to tell them to stop using Central Park numbers.  All we get now is Lee Goldberg telling us that the wind and temp reports from Central Park are not representative of the area- but he keeps on quoting them and the highs and lows there.

Either that or move the Central Park equipment out into the Sheep Meadow (or set up duplicate equipment there and just use their numbers and only keep the original equipment for historical purposes) or some other open area lol.  No one really cares about weather continuity from the 1800s anymore anyway, we all know the climate was far different back then.

 

 

Unfortunately, even top level meteorologists on the Accuweather Professional website, when doing comparisons of 90+ days in the east, BOS, NYC, PHL, DCA among others, use Central Park as the benchmark for New York City. They then attempt to do analyses based on this flawed data. For example, trying to explain why as of June 28 NY City still had not reached 90 (it had, just not in Central Park) or why New York had fewer 90+ days in 2018 than Boston did (in reality LGA had substantially more).

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

8 - 30 

ACY: 94
JFK: 92
EWR: 92
New Bnwck: 91
BLM: 91
LGA: 91
TEB: 91
NYC: 90
TTN: 90
PHL: 90
ISP: 89

NYC hit 90 a little after 1pm. Soon after, temperatures fell off a cliff.

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Select 90° or above High Temperatures in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Regions through 12 pm:

Allentown: 90°
Atlantic City: 93°
Baltimore: 93°
Boston: 94° (near the daily record)
Concord: 91°
Harrisburg: 90°
Hartford: 91°
Islip: 90° (near the daily record)
Manchester: 91°
New York City-JFK: 91°
New York City-LGA: 94°
New York City-NYC: 91°
Newark: 92°
Norfolk: 90°
Philadelphia: 90°
Providence: 91°
Richmond: 90°
Rochester: 90°
Salisbury: 90°
Sterling: 92°
Teterboro: 92° (near the daily record)
Trenton: 91°
Washington, DC: 90°
Wilmington, DE: 90°

 

What I have noticed on many occasions is that the NYC temperature seems to hit a wall at about 1pm or so capping any further rise. This occurs during various synoptic scenarios and has nothing to do with the onset of a sea breeze. Here, for example, at noon, NYC is right in the thick of things. By 4 pm, however, NYC is only 92 (daily high) while almost every other station, except ISP and JFK with their sea breeze, are 3 or 4 degrees higher. Just look at the hourly readings and you will find that this happens on a majority of days.

14 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Max today

 

EWR: 97
LGA: 97
NYC: 88
ACY: 95
{HL: 94

 

I like your NYC number to make a point of how ridiculous NYC has become. In reality, though, a day in the upper 90s is too much for even the NYC foliage to resist and LGA minus 4 is probably more accurate. I love your 88 though.

On ‎8‎/‎25‎/‎2018 at 12:16 AM, JerseyWx said:

And a great example of that was September 2015.

2015 was interesting in that during Aug. and Sept., NYC actually equaled or exceeded LGA and EWR in terms of heat and 90+ temps.

Possibly a result of a relatively dry summer or else a massive defoliation.

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

LGA is doing fine. It is located in one of the warmest parts of NYC. So it is supposed to have some of the highest temperatures. LGA seems to alternate with EWR on which station has the highest temperatures. Some summers with different wind flow and humidity EWR has higher temps than LGA. Did you know that Central Park often had more 90 degree days than LGA before the 1996 sensor move in Central Park. That was when the Central Park thermometer was in the open like all sensors are supposed to be.

This summer the highest temperature departures have been located north and east of NYC closer to the strongest upper ridging. Notice how similar the temperature rankings are for these areas north and east of NYC. Areas south and west of NYC have been cooler where there have been more clouds and rain along with onshore flow.

August average temperatures and rankings through the 20th:

LGA....81.3...#4th warmest

ISP.....77.7....#3

BDR....78.7....#1 warmest August 1-20 on record

HPN....76.5....#4

 

I don't disagree with you on LGA.

I've been following Central Park ever since I was a small child and the "official" NYC obs were moved from the Battery to Central Park in 1960. I remember being very happy at the time since the summer of 1960 had just concluded as the first summer in recorded history without a 90 degree reading. Tops at the Battery was 89. However, the Park did reach 91 that year so NY was saved the ignominious fate of going through a year without officially reaching 90. During the years there were ups...May 19, 1962 (99), April 1976 (96) and of course July 1966. I recall being somewhat surprised on July 3 when the highs I believe were NYC 103, EWR 103, JFK 104 (strong NW wind all day) and LGA 107. It was unusual at the time for LGA to be so far out in front of the rest. Possibly the NW wind. There were also downs. I remember staying up all night in late Aug. 1986, listening to the hourly reports on the radio, to see if the temperature would fall below 50 for the first time ever during July or August. It did not. During most of this time, though, there was never an issue of NYC not being a valid proxy for Manhattan.

I did not pay much attention to the ASOS thing in 1996 and first really noticed it during the early 2000s. On July 31, 2009 there was an article in the NY Times lamenting the cool summer thus far and that it had not exceeded 86 during all of July. Well, the summer was certainly well below normal but LGA recorded days of 87,87,88 and 89 (on the day of the article). No big deal really except to illustrate how what is being viewed as reality is actually based on a false premise. This year, when it comes time to review the summer, the media will probably report the fifteen (maybe a few more) 90+ days at NYC and draw conclusions from that. I will be pleasantly surprised if they mention the 30+ (maybe close to 40 when all is said and done) 90+ days at LGA and discuss the foliage issue. I would be even more pleasantly surprised if this finally motivates Upton to correct this situation.  

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

The WAR has been a very stable and persistent feature in 2018. We are lucky that the strat warming produced a cooling influence for March and April. Otherwise, it would have been continuous warmth and an early ending to winter after January 10th.

Hard to find a good proxy for NY City as LGA seems to be running a bit warm and NYC is a joke.

Average high temperatures for Aug. through 8/20

LGA 88.1,  TEB 88.1,  EWR 87.3,  New Brunswick 86.8,  BDR 85.2,  ISP 84.5,  NYC 84.4,  JFK 84.1,  HPN 83.6.