ConvectiveIA

4 hours ago, UMB WX said:

First time in 4 yrs we'll be able to Braaaaap to the Racine County Winterfest.  What a 5 day stretch of snow.

Does that mean snowmobile to it? Sorry for my ignorance. I though WI and MN were in a snow drought 

A bit late for me to be in here but I worked today. We ended up with a solid 6 new inches. It looked gorgeous on top of the 4 inches we already had 

We’re trapped under a moderate snow band for some time now. Got about 1.5-2 inches of fresh snow since it started at 2 this afternoon

I think that right now the RAP and HRRR are too far southeast over our area with the cutoff as snow has already developed in areas northwest of it. The RDPS looks more realistic, or maybe something between but it’s slready snowing nicely here with 1/2 inch new snow so far 

48 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

Actually concerned that I’ll be missed to the south today. It’s almost inconceivable that the 12z runs yesterday were showing sleet/rain here and not a lot of snow. 

I don’t know how he did it, but this is all @cyclone77‘s fault. 

It’s a little weird and scary. We are in the bullseye now but it’s a skinny swath 

It’s 6 degrees colder here than was predicted yesterday for this time of morning 

Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

Obviously, the 18z Euro and the first evening model runs have the eastern Iowa members excited.

And central Iowa members by golly

And this sudden shift of the models took place too late for the NWS afternoon package again lol. They’re still calling for an inch of snow here where the GFS, RDPS and NAM all point to 6-8 inches 

18z NAM is south for sure and places metro DSM much closer to, or just within, the heavy snow band. This outcome would not surprise me at all. 

It’s absolutely ripping here. I havnt seen it snow this heavily in a few years!

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Precip starting to break out in northwest MO.  South-central IA should be rocking nicely in the next few hours. 

We have graupel spittin’ right now with the radar filling in around us! Let’s get it started!

I’m betting on 3 inches in DSM/AMES Storm is a day late and a dollar short for the hefty amounts forecast yesterday 

Things have trended less organized in the last suite of runs showing that for us, it’s a day late and a dollar short for the promises of high totals the models advertised yesterday. Big screw zone on west side of Iowa extending into the DSM/Ames metro area 

Hot Diggity. I don’t own a shovel and scant the chance to purchase one 

2 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

A lot of guidance was fairly dry prior to the 18z runs. The grids have 4-6” now, don’t have a problem with that.

Yeah the 18z runs come out too late for the afternoon package. 

Looking at the DSM NWS forecast discussion it would seem they are being quite conservative about central Iowa. They are thinking 3 inches or so maybe 4, but most models I’ve seen are showing 4-7 inches here, with the 18z NAM closer to 8 inches and the GFS at over 6. The argument is that it’ll be columns and not dendrites, but I have a feeling they might change their minds and include us in a Watch tomorrow.

13 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Maybe it is just me, but this storm seems exhausting to track.

Hahaha well it certainly has its share of followers. Oh my. Oh dear.  

I really do like the 18z NAM. 

The notion of a big storm possible makes me feel warm and fuzzy but it’ll probably be Tuesday before I start getting excited about the model runs. I’m too old for disappointment 

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I don't really care when it comes to thunderstorms lol. Snow I do though. Like I said no one's going to get every storm, I think it's just the start to this Winter that has anyone who did not get the storm on edge. Remember, Southern New England was supposed to have their most historic winter on record and they have barely seen a snowflake. 

Wow I actually graduated high school in Rhode Island and my sister lives in Connecticut and she is complaining they haven’t seen any snow! The land of the dying mcs comment was because a year or two ago one of the posters here had that as their catchphrase or signature on all their posts! I’m happy we are in a new pattern now and look forward to storm watchin with everyone the next few weeks!

ps I consider Iowa the land of the dying supercell 

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

No, you were spot on. You measure and clear every 6 hours. Youre welcome to measure every 30 minutes, 40 minutes, hour, whatever you want to check on rates, you just don't clear it. If you clear less than every 6 hours you will be inflating your total and if you clear more than 6 hours you will be lowballing it. Of course this is if it is snowing, obviously as soon as a snowfall stops is the best time to measure it. In all of these rules apply when there's not a lot of wind, obviously when it's a windy storm snowboards maybe useless and you will need to just take a ton of measurements to get an average.

 

The storm really hurt lol, I think mainly because of the start we've had to this Winter. Most of the areas that got hit with this storm are areas that were definitely due based on recent years. The SE MI snowmagnet could not pull in a single flake with this one. Snow literally hit a wall, as expected.

SE MI, the land of the dying MCS

1 minute ago, Indystorm said:

I-70 closed from Greenfield west to Mt. Comfort just east of Indpls due to fatal crash and I-65 closed north of LAF.  Significant snowstorm for many of us in the sub to share both the wealth and the concerns.

That’s really sad I hate it when that happens if people would just slow down when it’s snowing or icy

Snow really seems to be very slowly lightening up but it’s still accumulating. We have about 5 inches or just shy of that now. I’m grateful to the snow gods and satisfied with this one. The models were too conservative/too far south with the northern cutoff here too and even Ames got a few inches and snow made it up even further north than that. Here’s a photo from 2 hours ago. Little more out there now 

NWS DSM upgraded to warnings in the entire of bottom two tiers of counties in Iowa. I’m surprised they didn’t do the 3rd tier as well given these radar returns in Warren County. They’re really getting dumped on there and already have at least 5-7 inches. We have over 4 inches in dsm as it is and the heavy stuff pulsates across into Polk county here in 20-30 minute bursts. 

Update: just as I was writing they launched warnings in the 3rd tier!

Oh yes we have 2.5 - 3 inches on the ground now downtown and the heavier stuff is starting to develop north over us.