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hlcater

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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. hlcater
    The HRRR verbatim would be a crippling winter storm over here. 0.10-0.20 of ice here, with 6"+ of snow. Not to mention the light rates of the FZR would be ideal for ice accretion, as well as coming off a single digit arctic airmass yesterday.
  2. hlcater
    High currently over MN is either side of 1050mb currently. Doubt it really matters a whole lot, but this is a few mb stronger than forecast.
  3. hlcater
    DVN opts for WSW for the QCA and Iowa north of I-80. 4-6” with up to 0.10 of ice.
  4. hlcater
  5. hlcater
    Also took a step towards the GFS with the surface trough extending into MN. All but assures a fairly swift transition to rain for many. I think this is the most likely solution. MN/WI continue to look golden though.
  6. hlcater
    I’m still not ready to be an optimist
  7. hlcater
    Storm gets an F
  8. hlcater
    HRRR brings another wave of precip across my area tomorrow morning, and while temps would definitely support snow, the complete lack of moisture in the DGZ suggests otherwise. Could get some more freezing rain or graupel rather than snow if it's right.
  9. hlcater
    Freezing rain has begun here. Looking at radar, we could see 0.10+ of accrual before switching to snow.
  10. hlcater
    FWIW, the WRF suite NSSL/ARW/NMMB is not as bullish on the first wave as the NAM/HRRR/RAP are.
  11. hlcater
    I’m still not sure what exactly to expect from this system. Some models(UK/GEM/ICON) show very little, while others(NAM/EC/GFS) show a solid hit. I’m still worried about being missed SE.
  12. hlcater
    Thinking with trends this morning of a more progressive, and therefore more southerly, second wave that it seems fairly likely that the best snow slides southeast of here. If I had to take a stab, Id bet area from Kirksville to Sterling and far SE WI get the best snow. It’s a narrow band in any case, so any additional change in track to the south and we may get shut out entirely.
  13. hlcater
    One thing that puts a hold on that for me is the positive NAO/AO. To me, that would lend more credence to the storm cutting more NW, like it currently is, opposed to sliding south.
  14. hlcater
    Do you happen to have the operational by chance?
  15. hlcater
    #1 analog is super Tuesday
  16. hlcater
    1337 tornadoes and the first high risk will be on 4/20.
  17. hlcater
    Time to get the lawn chairs out?
  18. hlcater
    Might squeeze some dixie severe out of that.
  19. hlcater
    Looks like yet another 2010s december for the trash bin. Yippee1
  20. hlcater
    where we can have split flow in April to maximize suffering.
  21. hlcater
    Pivotal weather has greatly diversified the amount of data available with the ECMWF. This is gonna be *really* nice. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfcmslp&rh=2019110312&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
  22. hlcater
    I remember that early October 2013 system not by the snow, but by the higher end tornado event that ensued over northeast NE and NW IA. Would be nice to see one of those this fall. EDIT: here’s Simon Brewer and Juston Drake’s account of the event for those so inclined. https://stormgasmcom.wordpress.com/2013/10/23/october-4-2013-tornado-outbreak/
  23. hlcater
    It’s just their climatology. Dry and super cold is what they do best.
  24. hlcater
    the point of my post is that dvorak blows and should only be used if there are literally no better alternatives
  25. hlcater
    Because everyone knows that Dvorak is the best intensity estimation method out there, firmly beating recon aircraft in every metric.
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