eddygeeme

Here's our SLP its on the move slowly gaining strength it should ride the frontal boundary up the coast. Probably keep a eye on how much it can strengthen in regards to how much back filling. Models hinting that's a possibility which is why you've had some push out when this leaves the area. But it's not even to the outer banks yet. 

Get some sleep set your alarms for 7 and see where we're at maybe a surprise or two.

5 minutes ago, Ruin said:

looks like the back end is moving in faster then forecasted? unless we get some back end filling in thought it was supposed to go until 10am 

LP is still onshore down in SC/NC West of Wilmington.  Back filling would come from that as it passes by. What you see is just a dry slot or a lull.

Where is the surface low right now?

5 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

measurements between 5.2-5.5" somehow in germantown? did not expect this whatsoever lmfao

Can confirm in Germantown as well.

Any one have a good map of the low pressure system 

22 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Started as a rain/sleet mix in Germantown, but we're over to all snow as of 5-10 minutes ago. Still light rates.

Yup light snow over by exit 16 Milestone 

And with this break in cloud coverage temp has dropped a degree from 28 to 27

If you're in a area from Frederick to about NW DC look outside if you have a clear view the skies have cleared and the star are out this will be the last chance we get in the next hour or so for temps to drop

1 hour ago, pazzo83 said:

Stuck at 33.5 to 34 here.  Without CAA, we don't cool off much past 9pm.

What your DP and location 

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Most are in 20s already. Last run had us in low 30s at this time

Said it earlier that's one thing we would need was for temps to get in deep into the 20s as they could. We got that before the thicker cloud coverage rolled in. So we banked our colder temps in. Hopefully  we can manage steady temps or a slow rise of a cpl degrees from til morning. Have the cloud coverage be our friend in the early morning at sunrise until the precip arrives late morning.

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Bottomed out at 27, rose back up to 28.8. 

dewpoint 22

clouds probably rolled overhead

Same 26 here up to 28 however peeped outside and noticed some stars peeking thru the high clouds. Looks like there is about a hour break in cloud coverage https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12&refresh=true before the deeper cloud coverage rolls in. Maybe we knock another degree or 2 off the temp and dewpoints.

27/20 Germantown/Clarksburg line off exit 16.

3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

37/18. High of 38 today. Dew point has already started falling from a high of 21. RGEM is either the most consistent model of all time. Or it is going to go down in flames thinking it is. Feel pretty confident that my 3+ inch snowstorm drought will end tomorrow. And that is fine by me. Would I like to actually get 8? Of course. But I will enjoy whatever I get. 

What's your location? 

3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

nobody is falling "deep in the 20s" in DC/Balt metro.  

Correction meant fall as deep in the 20s as they can get. I'm in Germantown exit 16 literally 2-3 minutes from Clarksburg my forecast low is 26.

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

18z 3k nam thermals colder between 11-16z tomorrow

Every little bit helps. Likely picking up and modeling the current conditions we are seeing and discussing. Will be interesting to see if other models pick up. There will be some with the dreaded white rain but likely some surprises if the front end thump comes in heavy.

7 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

A lot of times the temp will creep back up slightly once the cloud deck moves in. The dews staying down are pretty key. 

This. Temps will drop but slow rise a cpl degrees. Which is why getting some good rational cooling effect tonight will be key I don't think you want to be at ex 34-35 at Sun rise means clouds rapidly move in and your low was around freezing. Even with a good front end in that scenario places will like have a quick initial burst of snow to sleet before changing over to rain.

Get the temps as deep in the 20s and hope for favorable track conditions even if it's the slightest.

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I just think it drops lower before the clouds 

Yup sunset is in less than a hour, cold ground fresh cold air mass they should drop. The battle won't be the airmass we have but the low track which is why if your a winter weather lover you need it as cold as you can possibly get it and you want some cooperation with the low.

That said there should be a good initial thump with the moisture available. The earlier it moves in the better.

-Keep clear to partyly cloudy skies so temps drop like a rock after sunset.

-Get clouds to roll in before sunrise

-Pray for decent front end thump. Have seen situations where a decent surprising front end thump along with a slightly favorable LP track holds more places over to the wintry precip side longer before any changeover occurs. There have been worse set ups. 

4 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

 

I see a few others beat me to it.

The more hours we can get of clear skies the better. Sunset is in a hour best solution is to have clear skies for  good part of the at least up to midnight get those temps to drop and hold off a slow rise until the precip moves in.

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Still clear skies over here. 39/22. If we can hold off the clouds until well after sunset, maybe we can enhance the in situ airmass

That's what I'm thinking it's about 90%  clear skies with only thin wispy high cirrus clouds. Ideal for some good radiational cooling with sunset approaching in a hour and change. I like the temperature set up along with the frozen ground. We've had far worse setups and have gotten accumulating snow ex the surprise 2 in a few weeks ago.

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The past 48 hours have done real work on ground temps. The 2 inch soil temp on our Clarksville mesonet site is down to 33 degrees. It was 40 a few days a go.

Something I've noticed IMBY in Germantown the ground is frozen solid. Every little bit helps. The main thing to watch is the overnight temps. Forecast is for mid 20s 26 here IMBY. I'm at 38/21 mostly clear skies with some high cirrus clouds. With sunset approaching in a cpl hours I like temps to drop quickly. It will all come down to how much temps can drop overnight and the front end thump.

24/17 Germantown 

This will come down to a game of watching temps Friday Night with lows in the mid to upper 20s with clear skies giving way to increasing clouds across much the forecast area sw to ne. Where temps drop enough before the cloud cover comes in will help greatly. Check your temps if you're low to mid 30s overnight Friday..... I'm expecting the typical slop across the area from heavy rain to heavy snow and everything in between.

EDIT-High IMBY Saturday is 35 low 31 Saturday night. Temps running 2-3 degrees colder Friday night and holding thru Sat early afternoon changes a lot.

32 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Oh yea, it's a thing.  That area is a microclimate.

Always assumed it was.

7 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

My gosh look at that gradient over just the 23 miles between Damascus at the top of Mont Co and Silver Spring!

You always want to be on the gradient line I always heard someone will get the thump or the shaft. Hopefully with rates there is more thump for a lot more areas. Pray for chillier temps to hold. Watching the thermals with this  will be key. I'll be watching like a hawk starting Friday afternoon to see how cool temps get and how fast cloud cover rolls in Saturday morning.