MyBookMonkey

29 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Had a little a few minutes ago too. Looks like game over for south of 85 this go around.  I'm not sure if the nam's error on surface dewpoints also extends into the low levels but the past few runs warmed the 950mb to 975mb also and the combo of that, the worst possible timing of precip, and  current temps, it's hard to see anywhere south of gainesville to hartwell/south of 85 getting much.  It will be colder than the models are showing ...but probably one of those 32.5  degree  deals. Still think gainesville, cornella, toccoa, etc get some. Anyone with any elevation should do  well. 

i sure hope this pattern change up ahead comes to pass. These marginal events that end up on the plus side of 32 get old real quick. 

Hmm do you think this could be like the feb 2015 event? I remember the nws had to play catch up hard on that one

20 minutes ago, Lookout said:

I think this is the first time  i have ever heard or seen someone argue for the gfs in a cad event. If you are in zone of cad real estate in north carolina,  you are making a terrible mistake hanging your hat on the gfs. 

At any rate, the nam is also too warm...in some cases by 5 to 7 degrees with dewpoints. For example, the nam..including the 3km, has dewpoints of around 28/29 in the upstate..when in reality they are in the 20 to 22 range. Looks like it's off by around 5 degrees in north carolina.

On average, when there is actually some respectable dewpoint depressions and evaporation to be had...which the event in december did not have at all, , the average error rate is  1 to 3 degrees too warm after saturation...with the old gfs being upwards of 3 to 5 degrees.,especially on the edges. 

Whatcha thinking for your area?

1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

18z looks way better for the upstate. It’s now showing a burst of heavy snow from 8 to midnight before the warm nose flips us to sleet

Nam?

3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

a note on the 3km nam, currently it's running on average about 3 degrees too warm right now here in georgia and in a lot of areas seeing rain. If it held this average error into tonight, temps would get to freezing in gainesville/85 corridor between 0z and 03z where it gets these areas down to 34 by 03z. 

Lookout how do you see zr chances for our area? Northeast ga