AnthonyDabbundo

We can always create our own subforum within the NYC forum. I appreciate Ralph Wiggum's and other's updates 

Glenn just gave out his winter forecast:

December -2 temps  4"

January normal temps 14"

February +2 8"

March -2 4"

Total: 28-36"

-2 temps 

Could see 3" locally in Delaware and SNJ, but think this is a 1-2" region wide

Agreed 100%. Wouldn't be surprised by a few March snow showers at some point during the first half of the month, but for all intents and purposes in Philly proper, it's over. I keep seeing posts around the forums that day 10 looks promising, but this is merely a broken record in this winter of shattered LR dreams.

Wouldn't rule out a minor event but I think we're finished 

JB touting the MJO as causing the warmth to be delayed but not denied (cannot fight the tropics). Now days 5 to 15 will be cold but centered in the Midwest for cold and snow - including the next big storm after this week which he says will likely go up west of the apps. Basically his thinking is while February will be cold relative to averages it will NOT be as cold as he originally thought. Also thinking we will likely NOT see any big snow storms in the east. 

JB cancelled winter? Here comes winter!!!!! Woo hoo 

Oh hell yeah, the teleconnections suggest we are far from finished with winter. And the pattern after Feb 5-ish turns from AN to N/BN. The one thing different this go around appears the STJ wont be quite as active to start out, but trends better as we move past Feb 10-ish. I'm not against this threat, I'm merely stating the facts that for now, there is not much support for a specific threat 240 hours or further out.

I only need 8 more inches to win a bet with a friend (I said 35+)

They were in fair agreement at day 6-7 before suppressing the storm. Too far out to get excited or start a thread based on one OP run with minimal ens support from Euro or GFS. But that's just me. If you're trying to puff your chest by noting the potential first before anyone else, then by all means, start a thread :-)

I don't care for DT but I think the pattern that sets up there screams snow at some point... -EPO, -AO, split flow, pumping up the ridge out west, maybe we get a storm at the beginning of the shift as the cold air comes in but I've noticed we tend to do better with a rising AO and retreating cold as the pattern is getting ready to reload, may have to wait for that. 

I can get red tagger analysis from the MA forum if I have to, and I love Forky's posts in the NYC thread, but I like having our own forum. We have plenty of great posters who are patient and willing to work with amateurs like myself. And when a storm is near, there is plenty going on

Nearly all guidance points to this OTS and we are only 78-84 hours out.  Next....

12z GFS is wide right

LC posted to my FB this morning to really watch Jan 28-29? I'm not feeling this 'threat'. Flow progressive via kicker riding Canadian border, strung out weak areas of low pressure S and E of OBX, temps marginal at best. Even the one model that showed the threat yesterday (Euro) hardly had precip to West of slp which would mean a track right on the coast to get precip into the big cities IF the system even formed and came North. I'm personally not feeling this one except maybe a coastal grazer in our far Southern zones.

Anyone see what LC might be on to or see things differently than myself? I don't even see model support for a hit in our area, though I could be wrong and maybe misreading the pattern? Always looking to learn.

Take a look at the Euro ensembles... some hits there. There is room if the northern piece can get dig a little more that the southern energy can get out ahead and phase. May be tough for us NW of the city but some of the ensembles form a stronger storm NW of the mean

Well I thought about it some more and realized just how to truly dead this subform is. So I am changing my vote... let's merge with the MA or NYC either one

As someone who has been mostly a reader as I continue to learn about the weather, I think separate is best. When there is no real storm threat to track, and this forum is a little quiet, I have no problem reading the NYC/Mid-Atlantic forums to keep me informed. But when there is a storm, I appreciate our philly group because everyone is level-headed and doesn't clog up the forum with ridiculous banter and can discuss local impacts. It's be extremely annoying to have the NYC people losing their minds over big model runs (which is a guarantee at some point) when I simply don't care about NYC impacts 

Steve D seems to be the only voice of reason on my twitter feed. Playing the wait and see game, along with the "observations over models" game. After his blizzard failure, I had my doubts, but he is still my favorite along with Bernie Rayno