jameswx

You're asking for fairness now after your behaviour on Saturday while the event was going on? Sorry to disappoint you, but that's not exactly how things work. Brett and Jim did absolutely not conduct themselves the way you did both before and during this recent event, end of story.

 

I think Saturday could be a significant day, large upper troughs like that in May will almost always will afford some kind of severe risk. Also, the GFS has been showing a fairly decent looking EML being advected over the Plain states (not extremely strong, but not negligible either). How is a negatively tilted trough bad for severe weather? It may cause problems in the wind profiles in some locations, but it also generally means a stronger surface low, with accordingly stronger low level flow and stronger mid/upper flow overspreading the warm sector. Positively tilted troughs generally cause a lot more problems in the setup in the Plains.

I know I will take a neutral tilt trough over a positive tilt on most set ups.  Regardless, I don't trust any model at this range progging the lack of an EML.