beanskip

Melissa hasn't made any eastward progress (per satellite) for the last 90 minutes.

Shoutout to whoever installed the Treasure Beach power poles.

Sixth lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. Only one hurricane (Labor Day Keys storm of 1935) has ever made landfall sub-900 (892 mb).

Still watching this westward motion -- looks like Melissa has made it to 78.6W perhaps 78.7W - that's three to four tenths of longitude further west than any 12z hurricane model depicted. HAFS A and B had Melissa crossing 17N at about 78.3W. I'm not sure how much practical impact there is from a near miss of the western tip or a far southwestern coast landfall, but it's interesting to track nonetheless. One would think the far eastern portions of the island might eventually benefit -- QPF-wise -- from a more western track. Not sounding the all clear or anything, lol, but seems like a trend worth watching.

Seems like it's been to the left of model guidance all day. Hard to tell from satellite, but it appears to have reached 78.4 W which is farther west than the HAFS A/B ever get the storm on their 12z runs.

HAFS-B track is sure off -- the 6z run showed Melissa crossing 17N before even getting to 78W, with northern movement occuring between 8 a.m. and 11 a.m. That didn't happen. HAFS-A had the storm still shy of 78W at 11 am Per satellite, looks like the storm has made it to 78.2W Probably just within-track-error noise, but with much more westward progress, the turn north would keep the storm pretty close to the western tip of the island.

Hey just checking in from Tallahassee -- haven't really been paying much attention to the weather, seems like the time of year when folks in the Carolinas have a shot for a snowstorm. Boy it sure does make me jealous ... anyway, hope all is well ....

1-3 inches for Tallahassee on this run -- it's a lock!

Not much snow down here in the panhandle (although a few GFS runs have gotten my attention!). Pulling for y'all in the Carolinas/Ga./Va to hit the jackpot!

Been on this board for a long, long time (including prior iterations). When it comes to snow in the 8-15 day range, all you can hope for is, well, hope. We haven't had any for most of the last 3-5 years. Right now we do. Rather than parse every model run for good or bad trends, just enjoy having some hope and an overall favorable pattern in the medium range. Then when it gets into the under-7-days range, you can commence with the cliff-diving/wishcasting that makes the board so entertaining.

Canadian shows a nice 1/7 snow that would make many on this board happy. That's Day 8, so getting closer to a better range.

TFW the 18z GFS shows a little spot of mixed precip over Osceola County Florida and snow just a few miles north of Tampa ....

Much better, sharper 500mb look on the 12/21-22 system.

12z GFS following the trend of other models -- moving the storm inland over Honduras. No chance of those early-week Cat 4 solutions if that happens.

Why are we dissecting 204 hour panels for a storm that hasn't formed yet and is forecast to behave like a drunken frat guy in the Caribbean for 3 days before eventually, possibly emerging into the Gulf?