Mountain_Patch

Set this as the mark when people rush back to Maria by sunday morning.

Just now, TomAtkins said:

I'm saying that Jose will be weakened before Maria gets close enough for Fujiwara effects to really matter. Jose sticking around as long as it did has done what needed to be done to likely keep Maria out to sea - it weakened the ridge. What it does after that likely wont matter. Any landfall would rely on the interaction wit hthe upper low over the south east (which you can see pulls Maria back a little in the GFS, but not really enough), plus a major slowing of the trough coming through.

There is just nothing about this setup which says that there will be major westward movement once the storm starts to recurve, Jose or not.

except the westward flow into florida right now. That confuses me why people are so confident on this turn.

6 minutes ago, TomAtkins said:

All of that happens and Maria is still too far from shore to make the move. The NHC cone gives you a good idea. Its not even close to have a US landfall even within the cone. The ensembles only have a few members making landfall. We are now within the time frame at 6 or so days out, that the better models would likely be showing such a massive change in course.

Realistically, hurricanes in Maria's current position with its short term heading just dont hit the East Coast. 

So you're telling me somehow in 10 years you've managed to completely study the effects of cyclone interaction with a concept that wasn't even named before the 2000's? I trust the good people at NOAA but not that much.

6 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Both the GFS and Euro (the most reliable models when tracking tropical systems) show a very similar evolution of Maria, the ridge(s), and the positively tilted north-CONUS trough... With Maria moving WNW, then north and northeast, then getting trapped under the high and moving a bit more west and north... the ridge then weakens and allows the trough to kick east and capture Maria... Good luck with your thinking. 

ignore the models and look at the atmospherics. They don't match. Neither model knows how to handle jose going forward. Saturday night you can trust the models.

I found this highly informative. 

2 hours ago, jojo762 said:

Safe to call it an OTS'er at this point... but not before causing widespread and significant damage in the Caribbean. 

This is wrong. The high could bridge with the high to the east of Jose. The low could advance quicker pulling Maria into the coast. Jose could avoid weakening enough to allow the bridge. There is no way to say its safe to say anything before sat night. 66% chance out to sea 33. whatever into south/north carolina/virginia. 

1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

who's estimate? is there a link?

I don't know, honestly. Intensification isn't understood which is really what led me to this site to begin with. This has been my reading material as of late: https://emanuel.mit.edu/limits-hurricane-intensity 

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

Someone said ~910mb is the max the area can sustain in terms of strength? how accurate is that? 

It's an estimate.

I've now lost all hope. Haters win. 

Everything anyone is discussing is anecdotal.The local code establishes 145 mph as a baseline. The problem is going to be 'Creole' construction as defined in this article: https://www.elnuevodia.com/english/english/nota/irmashowstheproblemofinformalconstruction-2358410/  Before the 2011 codes the baseline was 125. The problem is going to be *how much 'Creole'* construction took place. Puerto Rico is impoverished in comparison to the U.S. but on a lot of their buildings they do have decent standards. I would like less anecdotal evidence. 

 

I'm starting to come to agreement with 40/70 on his contrarian nature. None of these islands minus Barbuda have been completely decimated. Fact is at this current heading, it's going to interact with the mountains prior to hitting San Juan. The infrastructure will be damaged, but it isn't coming in from the northern part of the Island it's coming in from the South Eastern. It will be bad, and people will die, but this is a compact hurricane that doesn't have the size, or the punch Irma did at her maximum. The damage will be similar to the 7.1 in Mexico, and it will suck. However, this isn't going to be Biblical. We shouldn't let our imaginations run so wild with these storms. People who read the forums get the concept that it's going to be like Tuscaloosa, Moore, Joplin, but it's just not. 

Also; If you'd do a little googling you'd see HAM radio operators are still in communication. Just because some services are out doesn't mean all are. 
http://www.arrl.org/news/radio-amateur-on-st-lucia-relays-reports-of-hurricane-devastation-on-dominica