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Posts posted by Kory
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Deep tropical moisture could be headed for the Southern Plains due to some EPAC tropical activity. Both the Euro and GFS are moving the current disturbance in the EPAC into Mexico. A trough across the Central U.S. draws that moisture up and into Texas and surrounding states in the 8-10 day frame.
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Definitely resembles a Nino like pattern with active subtropical jet. I thought it was interesting that NOAA said they're not expecting an abnormally cold winter East of the Rockies like last year.
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Agreement with the GFS is essentially non-existent with the other three main globals, the GGEM and UK also have a substantial trough dropping into the Central US this weekend.
Wouldn't put much weight into the GFS solution considering the AO and NAO are sharply negative. Doesn't favor the progressive pattern. Makes sense that the 3 main globals are showing substantial troughing in the Central U.S.
Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion
in Central/Western States
Posted
Surface high pressure just off the SE Coast would also funnel in some Caribbean and Gulf moisture for Southern Plains and the Gulf Coast.