senc30

Changed over to a sleet fest here in Jacksonville. So much happier about that then an all night freezing rain fest. 

Jacksonville here. Nothing but freezing rain. Deck is a ice rink at this point. Praying these idiots stop driving down the roads and praying the power stays on. 

14 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Good post. Also, often models will show backside snow because it has difficulty seeing when the moisture exists. In a lot of cases it sees the warm nose go, thinks there is still moisture and shows phantom snow. Depending on where the OP is located though it could legit turn to snow. But this will be good experience for a lot of posters to see how this storm unfolds. 

Thanks for the helpful responses guys. Much appreciated. 

I am going to assume I don't know how to read these models like the GFS. I look at it on tropical tidbits. It shows a period of 4-6 hours of freezing rain and then goes to snow. I look at my local weather and they don't mention any snow, just ice. Wish I knew what I was looking at wrong. 

3 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Definitely could see some accretion on Friday night here in Charleston, but it'll be so difficult with today's warm weather I think for things to get too dicey around here. If anything I think the "re-freeze" opportunities on Saturday night could create more challenges than the actual freezing rain event itself, inland temps around the Charleston metro will probably dip below 20! 

Wondered about that. Imby, it was 64 yesterday and 68 today. Wondering how that affects things during the day tomorrow myself. 

3 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

This was the Ukie btw

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Must include sleet, zr in snow totals 

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

UK looks better, too.

I'm assuming it doesn't separate snow, ZR, Sleet, etc because no way I get close to 3 inches of snow when they are staying .25-.5 of ice. 

6 minutes ago, yotaman said:

That warm nose needs to recede much quicker.

Hope that happens but just can't see it. 

1 minute ago, yotaman said:

I'll take the 4 to 6 inches of snow over ice any day. We are under an ice storm warning right now. Hopefully it changes to snow much sooner than forecasted.

From the NWS: ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total Ice accumulations of
one quarter to one half of an inch.

* WHERE...Jones, Pamlico, Southern Craven, West Carteret, Inland
Onslow and Coastal Onslow Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions
will impact the morning and evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...An Ice Storm Warning means severe winter
weather conditions are expected or occurring. Significant
amounts of ice accumulations will make travel dangerous or
impossible. Travel is strongly discouraged. Commerce will likely
be severely impacted. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. Ice accumulations and winds will likely lead to
snapped power lines and falling tree branches that add to the
danger.

I'm refusing to get my hopes up but God it would be nice to have much less ice. Just have no idea what has to happen for that to occur.

3 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Oh what a frame!

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First map I've seen in forever that I wasn't deep in the red zone. 

How much NW movement needs to happen to get out of the ice on the coast? Lol

This may get deleted and if so, I understand but y'all are smarter then me by a lot so I'm going to ask. 

How difficult would it be for my area, Jacksonville, to actually get .25-.5 of ice? As someone in their late 30's, I don't ever remember such a think happening down this way. Maybe I'm just trying to convince myself that it's not going to be that much!

Woke up to an Ice Storm Warning here in Jacksonville. Really, really, really wasn't what I was hoping to wake up to today. 

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s time for you to sacrifice to the gods and take the rain for Wake’s snow. As it has been said, let it be. Amen.

Give me all the rain. Just keep the ice away from me!

Whatever needs to be done for me not to get ice, I want that to happen. Haha

1 minute ago, GunBlade said:

That’s not eyewalls map, another met made it. Signature in bottom right. 
 

That’s the most realistic solution. And even if the bigger totals of earlier runs come close to verifying, putting places like CLT in the 1-2” covers all a met needs to. If they get 4” great! If Mets say 4” and CLT gets 1” it’s the biggest bust in the 21st century….

This has nothing to do with me hoping to not see .4 in ice imby. 

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Hope you're wrong because I don't want .4 of ice personally. Hard to believe that much ice falls that close to the coast. 

And just like that, the ice is back for us in Jacksonville. Damn!

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I’d rather be in Jacksonville/New Bern right now

This morning it was ice, ice baby. Seems to have changed a lot since that time. 

Still curious to see how this changes over the next 24 hours for those of us down here around and near Jacksonville. What a wild swing of things today. 

3 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Latest GFS looks much better for us. Less icing, more snow.

Who is us?

Seeing higher snow totals and lower ice totals for my area now as compared to this morning. I'm very surprised by this. 

8 minutes ago, Bevo said:

This might be a rare case in which the emphatic statement is probably true.

I think most people on this board would agree - ice progs just don't usually pan out in reality. That should be good news.

Thanks y'all 

I know everyone is excited about the snow but being here in Jacksonville, I am extremely concerned about a catastrophic ice event. Am I over thinking this or am I right to be worried?

What are the odds the models lost the system again at day 7-8 and find it again at day 5 like has happened many times before? Im on the coast so I know my odds are slim to none regardless but I always enjoy seeing my fellow NC people get snow.