senc30

Finally started here in Jacksonville. Started out as hard pellets but is now changing over to flakes. 

Welp, woke up this morning to no 85 and no hurricane but the amounts did change avain. Now showing 5-8 inches in Jacksonville. What a roller coaster ride this has been. 

Here in Jacksonville, my weather app said 0" this morning. At noon it said 1-3" and now says 3-5". I figure tomorrow it will say high of 85 with a hurricane coming. 

I'm in Jacksonville. If no snow means avoiding ice and freezing rain, I'm fine with that. That Thursday evening/night forecast for us isn't anything I want. 

21 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Canadian paints 2.5 feet in onslow County.

Considering I live in Onslow county, if we get 2.5 feet in my yard from this, I'll buy this entire board a round at any bar of your choice!

14 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Honestly, do you want to be banned?  

I was wondering if I was missing something but I see now I'm not. 

Here is Jacksonville, I have no clue what to expect tomorrow. I've seen some crazy numbers being thrown around. 

13 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Unless the GFS were to verify. Only gives ~3 inches at RDU.

Im also dubious this is still a TS

Agreed. I've been wondering how it's still a TS since after midnight. 

Looking at wunderground, they have their track saying Debby now should move south east in order to get back on track. Weird looking stuff. 

27 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It does seem like most of the coastal areas will get a dry slot as the center passes. A lot of models push a lot of the moisture to the west side of the storm once the storm has made it back over water and starts moving inland. This is where the bad flooding will occur. Probably impacting the SC coast the most.

I noticed that to. Wondering what that means for areas north and east of the storm around Jacksonville, etc. With the current NHC track, it would seem that less rain would be possible but at this point, it's a wait and see. 

Just now, NotSureWeather said:

Waaaay earlier and way further south.

What does that mean for down the road? 

With the amount of time it has stayed in the general area compared to what was forecast, I wonder if it ever makes it back out to the Atlantic. 

Not sure it will be a TS by the 8pm update tonight. The land is killing it.

9 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

Looks like NHC was off by about 50 miles to the actual center. Can probably adjust the track accordingly.

Which way?

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It looks like it. The organizational trend has been consistent through the day after the earlier dry air intrusion. Still don’t quite have deep convection fully wrapped but that’s probably not as much as an inhibitor as earlier.

 

Meanwhile on the model front the GFS keeps driving this well south of other guidance. Very big spread at a fairly short lead. They’re going  in opposite directions lol.

 

That is a massive difference between them. Crazy to think with it being this close to landfall.

4 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said:

Because it's action that we can follow.  I hope you aren't one of THEM.  Last I checked, I'm in line to get 21 inches of rain this coming week.  I'm thankful that I can experience that in my lifetime.

Not sure who THEM is but experiencing that is not a good thing for most. To each their own I reckon. 

10 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said:

It is unlikely that we ever see an eye so slow down on that.  Just be thankful that we are following something approaching the USA coast.

Why should we be thankful? 

Changed over to a sleet fest here in Jacksonville. So much happier about that then an all night freezing rain fest. 

Jacksonville here. Nothing but freezing rain. Deck is a ice rink at this point. Praying these idiots stop driving down the roads and praying the power stays on. 

14 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Good post. Also, often models will show backside snow because it has difficulty seeing when the moisture exists. In a lot of cases it sees the warm nose go, thinks there is still moisture and shows phantom snow. Depending on where the OP is located though it could legit turn to snow. But this will be good experience for a lot of posters to see how this storm unfolds. 

Thanks for the helpful responses guys. Much appreciated. 

I am going to assume I don't know how to read these models like the GFS. I look at it on tropical tidbits. It shows a period of 4-6 hours of freezing rain and then goes to snow. I look at my local weather and they don't mention any snow, just ice. Wish I knew what I was looking at wrong. 

3 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Definitely could see some accretion on Friday night here in Charleston, but it'll be so difficult with today's warm weather I think for things to get too dicey around here. If anything I think the "re-freeze" opportunities on Saturday night could create more challenges than the actual freezing rain event itself, inland temps around the Charleston metro will probably dip below 20! 

Wondered about that. Imby, it was 64 yesterday and 68 today. Wondering how that affects things during the day tomorrow myself. 

3 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

This was the Ukie btw

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk
 

Must include sleet, zr in snow totals 

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

UK looks better, too.

I'm assuming it doesn't separate snow, ZR, Sleet, etc because no way I get close to 3 inches of snow when they are staying .25-.5 of ice. 

6 minutes ago, yotaman said:

That warm nose needs to recede much quicker.

Hope that happens but just can't see it.