El Nino 2023-2024
There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see a
the new C3S looks good for the start of winter. it's an ensemble of the ECMWF, CanSIPS, NCEP, UKMET, French models, German models, and JAMSTEC... pretty much an ensemble of every major seasonal forecasting model. it's as holistic as we can get
it is consistent with the cooling of 1+2, shifting the anomalies basin-wide once we head into the late fall and early winter. we end up with a high-end strong to low-end super Nino here on average. perhaps the most important part is that forcing sets
