El Nino 2023-2024
There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see a
It wasn’t just the extended models that failed badly. Failing that far out isn’t at all unusual due to low skill. But look at how badly the GEFS (other models were similar) busted with the very strong -AO predictions made 2/6-8 for 2/13-20:
2/6 predicted -3.5
2/7 predicted -3.0
2/8 predicted -3.2
2/6 AO prediction: -3.5 for 2/13-20 (all days sub -3.0!)
Actual AO: -0.6 for 2/13-20 (2/16-20 all ended up above all 30 2/6 prediction’s members!)(2/20 e
