There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see a
It looks great once again on the EPS for those who want a weak SPV. Similar to yesterday, the EPS mean goes weaker than climo 12/3 and is well below climo 12/7-end of run (1/10). Not that it is necessary, but this run implies the highest % of members yet with a major SSW (between 12/24 and ~1/11), 30%, which beats the 25% on yesterday’s run. The climo % chance of a major SSW by Jan 11th is only ~20-25%. More specifically, this run has 12% of its members with quite a potent major SSW (dip to <