El Nino 2023-2024
There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see a
Along with the note from @so_whats_happening, here are the phase maps for both pos and neg PDO.
One way to analyze the use of the PDO for this winter would be to look at all El Nino winters that occurred during a negative PDO regime (i.e. a multi-year PDO regime, which is what it looks like we will remain in this winter unless a hard flip occurs) and eliminate the winters in which a rogue -PDO winter occurred within an otherwise +PDO regime. Here is a chart of the -PDO regimes
