El Nino 2023-2024
There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see a
Indeed, it has been unusually dry in the TN Valley for El Niño since Sep 1st. However, much of the rest of the SE and E is often on the dry side in Sep and Oct of Ninos. Much of the central US is often wet like it was in Oct of 2023:
Sep to Oct precip moderate+ Ninos:
The typical E coast El Niño wetness doesn’t start til Nov or Dec with dryness often becoming dominant in the TN Valley then…it is almost as if the TN Valley has gotten dry two months too early.
Nov to
