El Nino 2023-2024
There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see a
@griteater I remembered you being the one to find AO/NAO patterns by ascending or descending solar. What surprised me was that when you had ascending solar, those years favored a -AO/NAO and vice versa.
Well, I did some plots that not only supported your research, but also found that a -QBO enhanced the association of ascending solar with -AO/NAO. This makes me more confident that we'll see more blocking this winter.
First, when I looked at QBO alone, I didn't find a strong associatio
