El Nino 2023-2024
There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see a
Did a prelim analog analysis...
Collected all El Nino years, from weakest to strongest, and cross ref'ed them against MEI, Nino 4, difference between ONI and Nino 4 (to see if it was east based or not), PDO, QBO, AMO, preceding base state (whether the nino came after multi-year ninas and -PDO regimes).
Once I filled in all this data, I filtered out all the east-based ninos, +PDO years, and +QBO years... any MEI lower than 0.5 and any higher than 1.1. I got only one analog match:
2
